Making sense of the polls
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This week’s Newspoll, conducted 9-12 November from a sample of 1630, gave Labor a 55-45 lead, a one point gain for Labor since last fortnight, and their largest Newspoll lead since February. Primary votes…
Liberal John Alexander today resigned as the Member for Bennelong, owing to concerns he had British citizenship by descent through his father. As Barnaby Joyce has also been ousted pending a 2 December…
A US Senate by-election will be held in Alabama on 12 December, caused by the resignation of Republican Senator Jeff Sessions to become Trump’s Attorney-General. Luther Strange, an establishment Republican…
Gubernatorial elections were held in Virginia and New Jersey today. In Virginia, there is a one-term limit for governors, so incumbent Democrat governor Terry McAuliffe was unable to seek re-election…
A Queensland Galaxy poll, conducted probably on 1-2 November from a sample of 900, gave Labor a 52-48 lead, a one point gain for Labor since an early August Galaxy. Primary votes were 35% Labor (steady…
This week’s Newspoll, conducted 26-29 October from a sample of 1620, gave Labor its third successive 54-46 lead. Primary votes were 37% Labor (steady since last fortnight), 35% Coalition (down 1), 10…
Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk today called the state election for 25 November, about two months before the three-year anniversary of Labor’s shock win in January 2015. There will be 93 single-member…
In July and August, six Senators and Deputy PM Barnaby Joyce were referred to the High Court as they may have been ineligible to stand for election or sit in Parliament. These cases were all considered…
The New Zealand election was held on 23 September, with final results released on 7 October. The conservative National won 56 of the 120 seats, Labour 46, the anti-immigrant populist NZ First 9, the Greens…
This week’s Newspoll, conducted 12-15 October from a sample of 1580, gave Labor a 54-46 lead, unchanged from three weeks ago. Primary votes were 37% Labor (down 1), 36% Coalition (steady), 10% Greens (up…