A black swan event must meet three criteria: it must be an outlier, must have a major impact and must be declared predictable in hindsight.
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The danger of treating COVID-19 as an astronomically rare and improbable event is that we will treat it as such and fail to prepare for the next pandemic. And there will be another pandemic.
Many people take heartburn medications for longer than they should.
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Recent reports of dangerous side effects and even early death from heartburn medications have led some to question whether this is the right medication for them.
What does it really mean to say we have a one-in-1,000 risk?
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