The Reserve Bank’s statement indicates there aren’t too many rate rises left. History suggests those hikes could come to an end by early spring.
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Articles on Cash rate
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The Reserve Bank has signalled it will keep pushing up rates until it has reigned in inflation – even if this means weaker economic growth, with income per person barely growing for years to come.
The Conversation’s 29-member panel expects very weak economic growth and recessions in much of the rest of the world, but there’s good news down the track for Australians’ buying power.
The full effects of the eight consecutive increases in the Reserve Bank’s cash rate are yet to become apparent, and there are signs inflation is on the way down.
Never, in the three decades the Reserve Bank has been targeting inflation, has it been tested by prices rising in unison like this.
The review will examine the bank’s Act, its inflation target, its management and recruitment process and the composition of its board.
Looking back at the Reserve Bank’s performance in setting interest rates over the past generation, we’d grade it an A for earlier years – but a fail for the years just before the pandemic. Here’s why.
Critics ought to acknowledge that on average over time Australia’s Reserve Bank has met its inflation target, but it is worthwhile examining the way it is run.
For the past 30 years or so, the RBA has targeted an inflation rate of 2-3%. But the rationale for a rate that low was always weak, and has since broken down.
The best way to manage the economy is though an array of tools. Interest rates are just one.
Inflation is well outside the Reserve Bank’s target band and higher than it has been for two decades.
Australia’s Reserve Bank no longer says it is patient, but it is unlikely to move move until it sees widespread higher wage growth.
Beware any advice to go either fixed or variable. You are unlikely to outsmart the bank.
The Conversation’s expert panel predicts prices will rise faster than Australians’ pay can keep up in 2022 – and that’s not their only concern about the local economy.
The 55 leading economists surveyed by the Economic Society see few signs of Australia aping the US, where inflation has surged to its highest level in 30 years.
In its quarterly statement on the economy the Bank is at pains to suggest it won’t be lifting interest rates quickly.
The Reserve Bank has limitless access to Australian dollars and a reputation to protect.
There’s more to that Coronavirus. Even before it, businesses weren’t keen to invest.
The Conversation’s 2020 economic survey points to a dismal year, with no progress on many of the key measures that matter for Australians and an increase in the unemployment rate.
Treasury Secretary Steven Kennedy says its up to the Reserve Bank to boost the economy. In normal times, that’s not his job.
Top contributors
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Visiting Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University
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Professor of Economics, UNSW Sydney
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Senior Lecturer, Research School of Economics, and Research Associate, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Australian National University
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Professor, Warwick Business School, University of Warwick
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John Hawkins is a Friend of The Conversation.
Senior Lecturer, Canberra School of Politics, Economics and Society, University of Canberra
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Vice-Chancellor’s Fellow, University of Tasmania
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Professor, School of Economics, The University of Queensland
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Emeritus Professor of Finance, The University of Melbourne
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Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra
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Lecturer in Economics, Monash University
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Professor of Economics and Finance, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics, University of Tasmania
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Professor of Macroeconomics, University of Sydney
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Visiting Fellow, Macquarie University Applied Finance Centre, Macquarie University
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Professorial Research Fellow, Melbourne Institute, The University of Melbourne
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Principal Research Fellow, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, and Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne
