Stung by their failure to accurately predict the outcome of the 2020 presidential election, pollsters collectively went off to figure out what went wrong. They have yet to figure out what or why.
Pollster Bud Roper once said of his field that “a good deal more than half is art and … less than half is science.” After the 2020 polls got a lot wrong, is it time for more candor from pollsters?
Polling is an imperfect attempt at providing insight and explanation. But the public’s desire for insight and explanation about elections never ends, so polls endure despite their flaws and failures.
Polling shows Joe Biden with a large lead over Donald Trump nationally in the presidential race. But there are many ways that presidential race polling has gone wrong in the past, and could do so now.
On March 12, 1933, President Roosevelt addressed the nation from the Oval Office during a time of great crisis. That ‘fireside chat’ proved broadcasting’s power as nothing before or since.
Whether it be African-Americans, Catholics or transgender people, the armed forces have played a vital role in shaping US social policy toward the country’s minorities.
Hoover abused his power as FBI director to serve presidents’ interests. The reforms that followed were set up to prevent it from happening again.
Franklin D. Roosevelt is famous for really getting a lot done fast. Will history remember Trump so kindly?
For many contemporary observers, the Spanish Civil War was seen as very much of a piece with the war against Hitler and Mussolini. But then things changed. Why?