The pressure to ‘have a good conference’ is immense for a party hoping to win an election. But the anxiety isn’t really evidence-based.
Academic rigor, journalistic flair
Articles on Polling
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Yes23 is blanketing the nation in hundreds of ads, while Fair Australia is sticking with a singular message and targeting specific states that will ensure a ‘no’ victory.
In the national poll, 42% of respondents said they were a hard ‘no’, compared to 28% who said they were a hard ‘yes’.
The ‘no’ side is successfully engaging young people on TikTok by combining volume (posting multiple TikToks a day) with authenticity, use of personal narratives and humour.
Maintaining impartiality does not require the media to publish nonsense, and certainly does not require them to publish nonsense without drawing attention to the facts or contrary evidence.
The US constitution would not restrict Donald Trump from running for president, even if he is in the middle of a court case, or was convicted.
The polls in late February suggest a 4-5% swing in the overall, two-party vote to Labor. However, Labor needs to pick up ten seats in total to win its own majority.
Comparisons of national polls over an eight-month period show support falling only among Coalition voters. This may not be fatal to the referendum’s chances, but it is serious.
Compared with past midterms, voter turnout among young people jumped in 2022 – but it was still below 30%.
When the rot sets in, past governments have found it hard to win back the public.
Polling for the 2022 midterms was more accurate than the dramatically wrong predictions of 2016 and 2020, leading one pollster to boast, ‘The death of polling has been greatly exaggerated.’
The U.S. midterms revealed a generational shift away from youth voter apathy. The apathetic, in fact, seem to be those trying to accurately measure public opinion using outdated methods.
Polling only provides a snapshot of the current moment but modelling across decades can help us predict the next election result.
Will some polls misfire in prominent races in the 2022 midterms? Probably. Will such errors be eye-catching? In some cases, perhaps. Will the news media continue to tout polls? Undoubtedly.
It’s bad for the party of government – and the closer you look, the worse it gets.
With two months to go until the US mid-terms, President Joe Biden has seen a significant lift in his approval ratings.
Angola’s 2022 election is the first in which citizens born after the war are old enough to vote.
There have been few if any elections when, in the last week, it has been the ‘uncommitted’ voters who have turned things around.
Labor needs substantially more than 50% of the two-party preferred vote – 51.8% according to the pendulum – to win the majority of seats, 76. This equates to a swing of 3.3 percentage points.
While the latest polls show the Coalition struggling to gain ground on Labor in two-party preferred terms, Scott Morrison maintains his lead as preferred prime minister.
Top contributors
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Paul Whiteley is a Friend of The Conversation.Professor, Department of Government, University of Essex
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Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
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Professor of Communication Studies, American University School of Communication
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Ashbel Smith Professor, School of Economic, Political and Policy Sciences, University of Texas at Dallas
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Professor of Economics and Finance. Director of the Betting Research Unit and the Political Forecasting Unit at Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University
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Senior Research Fellow, National Centre for Social Research, and Professor of Politics, University of Strathclyde
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Emeritus Professor of Politics and International Relations, Macquarie University
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Professor of Electoral Geography, University of Sheffield
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Professor, University of Sydney
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Emeritus professor, Monash University
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Professor of Political Science and Public Policy, University of Southampton
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Director of Political Analysis at Ipsos MORI and Professor of Public Opinion and Political Analysis, King's College London
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Senior Lecturer in Quantitative Social Science and Director of the Sheffield Q-Step Centre (The University of Sheffield); Statistical Ambassador (Royal Statistical Society), University of Sheffield
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Director, La Trobe Asia and Associate Professor, La Trobe University, La Trobe University
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Senior Research Fellow, Centre for Advancing Journalism, The University of Melbourne
