Labor needs substantially more than 50% of the two-party preferred vote – 51.8% according to the pendulum – to win the majority of seats, 76. This equates to a swing of 3.3 percentage points.
While the latest polls show the Coalition struggling to gain ground on Labor in two-party preferred terms, Scott Morrison maintains his lead as preferred prime minister.
At the 2019 election, the polls got it seriously wrong. State polls and election results suggest this may have been corrected, but it’s by no means certain.
Would Australians vote for an Indigenous Voice in the Constitution, or just approve the parliament simply legislating a Voice?
Australians may support one, both, or neither.
Young people say they don’t use protection during oral sex.
F.G. Trade/E+ via Getty Images
A task force of polling experts found surveys notably understated support for Donald Trump, both nationally and at the state level. Here’s what may have gone wrong, according to a polling historian.
14% of the UK population often make up a much smaller proportion of people of people polled.
Biden supporters in Philadelphia celebrate when his win – with a much smaller margin than predicted by polls – was projected by news outlets on Nov. 7, 2020.
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Stung by their failure to accurately predict the outcome of the 2020 presidential election, pollsters collectively went off to figure out what went wrong. They have yet to figure out what or why.
Professor of Economics and Finance. Director of the Betting Research Unit and the Political Forecasting Unit at Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University
Senior Lecturer in Quantitative Social Science and Director of the Sheffield Q-Step Centre (The University of Sheffield); Statistical Ambassador (Royal Statistical Society), University of Sheffield