People know a lot about their friends and neighbors – and pollsters can learn from that information, if they ask.
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Articles on Polling methodology
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The Tasmanian seats of Bass and Braddon were always going to be key elements of a Coalition victory – and so it proved to be.
Most surveys are consistent in finding there is a substantial minority of the view that immigration is too high, but not a large majority.
The exit poll published at 10pm suggests the Conservatives could fall short of a parliamentary majority. Is it to be believed?
Polling is difficult – and everyone except pollsters overestimates how accurate polls are.
Pollsters must be as accurate as possible. How will they address the challenges revealed in the 2016 election, and other changes in the coming years?
People around the world were shocked when Hillary Clinton, ahead in many polls, didn’t end up the U.S.‘ president-elect. But that doesn’t mean the polls themselves were wrong.
Forecasters have been left reeling once again after failing to predict the outcome of the US election.
Survey findings are typically considered in isolation in the media, with no understanding of context, of what is within and what is beyond the expected.
The polling industry struggled to predict the last British election, and referendums are even harder.
New survey information puts paid to ‘shy Tories’ theory.
Did anyone tell you this was the “most unpredictable election in years”? There’s a reason for that.
While pre-election polls got their sums wrong, and seemed to ignore biases in the rush to publish, a far more accurate call was being made in the betting shops of Britain.
Polling is a central part of any election these days. If only it weren’t such a complicated business.
Recent polls have put Labour and the Conservatives in what seems to be an unshakable dead heat. The latest Ashcroft poll puts them both on 33%. This takes the parties back to exactly where they were in…
Beyond polls and betting markets, how else can we gauge how people feel ahead of future elections? Social media is a goldmine, and one of the newer ways to tap into it is with a “social mood reader”.
Tuesday, November 6 was a game changer. The Republican Party in the United States has come to understand that the political environment has been altered. White males can no longer dictate the results of…
New polls frequently announce that a significant proportion of the population is concerned about an issue or willing to sacrifice for a cause, from environmental sustainability to Third World debt. These…
Top contributors
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Senior Research Fellow, National Centre for Social Research, and Professor of Politics, University of Strathclyde
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Emeritus professor, Monash University
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Professor, Department of Government, University of Essex
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Professor of Economics and Finance. Director of the Betting Research Unit and the Political Forecasting Unit at Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University
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Chair & Professor of International Business, University of Manchester
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Professor of Political Science; Director, Institute for the Study of Social Change, University of Tasmania
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Senior Lecturer, School of Political and Social Inquiry, Monash University
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Associate Professor, Politics and Public Policy, Flinders University
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Huffington Foundation Professor of Economics and Environmental Studies, Wesleyan University
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Senior Lecturer of Australian Politics, Murdoch University
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Senior Lecturer in Political Science: Research Fellow at the Cairns Institute; Research Associate for Centre for Policy Futures, University of Queensland, James Cook University
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Professor of Political Science and Public Policy, University of Southampton
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Adjunct Research Fellow; Journalist, University of Notre Dame Australia
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Ashbel Smith Professor, School of Economic, Political and Policy Sciences, University of Texas at Dallas
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Senior Lecturer, Department of Government and International Relations, University of Sydney
