The final polls ahead of the federal election on May 21 give Labor a 53-47 two-party preferred leave - if that is repeated on May 21, Labor will win government.
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Articles on Polls
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There have been few if any elections when, in the last week, it has been the ‘uncommitted’ voters who have turned things around.
Late polls show a tightening on two-party preferred votes, but a slew of seat polls reveal just how close a lot of the contests will be on May 21.
Labor needs substantially more than 50% of the two-party preferred vote – 51.8% according to the pendulum – to win the majority of seats, 76. This equates to a swing of 3.3 percentage points.
With early voting about to begin, Labor has widened its margin in polls to a strong winning position.
A slew of polls show only a modest lift for the government after the budget, and Labor favoured to win the election.
Post-budget polls show a small gain for the Coalition on two-party preferred figures, but still point to a Labor victory is replicated on election day.
Latest seat polling shows a mixed bag for Labor and the Coalition – but seat polling has proved unreliable in the past.
A new poll shows a 3% drop in the Greens’ primary vote, while another has Josh Frydenberg ahead of Scott Morrison and Peter Dutton as preferred Liberal leader.
NSW will conduct four byelections this weekend, while the Essential poll has better news for the Coalition.
The latest Newspoll puts Labor ahead, 53 to 47, but other surveys suggest the two party race is tighter.
The Andrews government’s difficulty in passing its pandemic bill highlights the need for electoral reform it should have embraced years ago.
The prime minister’s approval ratings have suffered a slump in recent weeks - but at this stage that does not mean anything for next year’s election.
It appears from recent polling that the more the deputy prime minister is in the spotlight, the worse the Coalition will perform.
Newspoll continues to show Labor ahead of the Coalition on a two-party preferred basis, but other polls, and the end of lockdowns on the east coast, may paint a different picture in the coming weeks.
Labor continues to show a strong lead in Newspoll, but Resolve shows a markedly different situation, and much may change before the next election.
Even in the locked down states of NSW and Victoria, incumbent premiers continue to poll well ahead of their rivals.
After the Coalition fell behind Labor federally in recent polls, it appears to have clawed some of that back – and voters are keen on opening up once vaccination rates are high enough.
Polling results suggest the ousting of Michael McCormack in favour of Joyce could hurt the Coalition
Polling reflects wide dissatisfaction with the vaccine rollout. Despite this, the Coalition is still in a winning position for the next election.
Top contributors
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Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
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Professor of Economics and Finance. Director of the Betting Research Unit and the Political Forecasting Unit at Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University
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Senior Research Fellow, National Centre for Social Research, and Professor of Politics, University of Strathclyde
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Research Professor at the Center for Political Studies, University of Michigan
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Senior Lecturer, School of Political and Social Inquiry, Monash University
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PhD Candidate, The University of Western Australia
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Associate Professor in American Politics and Foreign Policy, US Studies Centre, University of Sydney
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Senior Project Manager, Murdoch University
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Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra
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Adjunct Research Fellow; Journalist, University of Notre Dame Australia
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Professor of Geography, University of Bristol
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Paul Whiteley is a Friend of The Conversation.
Professor, Department of Government, University of Essex
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Senior Lecturer in Quantitative Social Science and Director of the Sheffield Q-Step Centre (The University of Sheffield); Statistical Ambassador (Royal Statistical Society), University of Sheffield
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Professor of Sociology, University of California, Irvine
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Professor of Political Science, LaGrange College
