Tactical voting and shifting party allegiances mean the final week could change everything.
Academic rigor, journalistic flair
Articles on Polls
Displaying 1 - 20 of 99 articles
A look at the challenges of producing and consuming election polls.
After a foreign policy win, presidents usually enjoy a short-term poll boost. But that's often followed by a long-term decline.
Women are swinging elections in the US and Australia in ways analysts have struggled to predict. Two recent studies can help explain.
Members of Congress factor what the public thinks into their decisions. But it's difficult to measure what the public is really thinking.
Meanwhile, the polls indicated that support for impeachment has shifted markedly, with most Americans now supporting it.
US President Donald Trump is in an unenviable position as the race towards the 2020 presidential election heats up. Meanwhile, the UK's attempts to Brexit continue to be untidy.
Political campaigns and journalists often turn to social media to see how voters feel about an election. But the numbers they see there may not accurately reflect the electorate's views.
Evidence suggests that support for stricter background checks has increased and opposition has softened.
Americans have never felt warmer toward immigrants, nor have they ever been more supportive of immigration.
Approval ratings are usually a good way to predict the winner of the next presidential election. But Trump's numbers fall far outside any historical trends.
While polls have been patchy for some years, analysis shows they have been particularly out of whack since Morrison became prime minister.
This election showed that Australia is stuck with an increasingly polarised media, a highly concentrated media ownership landscape and no apparent way to do anything about it.
After five long weeks, the campaign is drawing to a close, with the polls still pointing to a narrow Labor win, with lots of unknowns in the detail.
With the higher quota at a half-Senate election, parties probably need at least 5% of the vote to be in contention for a seat at this election.
Hispanics oppose Trump's immigration policies in larger numbers than the rest of the population. But their opinions are divided sharply across partisan lines.
While the budget appealed to the Coalition's perceived strength on overall economic management, wage growth and climate change are likely to be important during the election campaign.
A Queensland Galaxy poll taken at the same time shows a healthier lead for Labor - but more polls are needed to determine any trends in voting ahead of the federal election.
The latest polls show Labor holding a solid lead over the Coalition, while seat polls show that Tony Abbott may struggle to retain his Sydney seat.
Polls suggest that the majority of Americans think climate change is real, is caused by humans and needs to be addressed. But climate change isn't a priority when Americans go to vote.
Top contributors
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Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Melbourne
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Professor of Economics and Finance. Director of the Betting Research Unit and the Political Forecasting Unit at Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University
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Professor of Politics, University of Strathclyde
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Senior Lecturer, School of Political and Social Inquiry, Monash University
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PhD Candidate, University of Western Australia
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Senior Lecturer in American Politics and Foreign Policy, Academic Director of the US Studies Centre, University of Sydney
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Associate Director, Business Intelligence & Analytics, University of Western Australia
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Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra
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Professor of Communication, University of Newcastle
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Professor of Geography, University of Bristol
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Professor, Department of Government, University of Essex
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Senior Lecturer in Quantitative Social Science and Director of the Sheffield Q-Step Centre (The University of Sheffield); Statistical Ambassador (Royal Statistical Society), University of Sheffield
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Research Professor at the Center for Political Studies, University of Michigan
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Honorary associate, School of Social Sciences, UNSW
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Adrian Barnett is a Friend of The Conversation.
Professor of Statistics, Queensland University of Technology
