The final polls ahead of the federal election on May 21 give Labor a 53-47 two-party preferred leave - if that is repeated on May 21, Labor will win government.
Labor needs substantially more than 50% of the two-party preferred vote – 51.8% according to the pendulum – to win the majority of seats, 76. This equates to a swing of 3.3 percentage points.
Post-budget polls show a small gain for the Coalition on two-party preferred figures, but still point to a Labor victory is replicated on election day.
A new poll shows a 3% drop in the Greens’ primary vote, while another has Josh Frydenberg ahead of Scott Morrison and Peter Dutton as preferred Liberal leader.
Newspoll continues to show Labor ahead of the Coalition on a two-party preferred basis, but other polls, and the end of lockdowns on the east coast, may paint a different picture in the coming weeks.
After the Coalition fell behind Labor federally in recent polls, it appears to have clawed some of that back – and voters are keen on opening up once vaccination rates are high enough.
Professor of Economics and Finance. Director of the Betting Research Unit and the Political Forecasting Unit at Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University
Senior Lecturer in Quantitative Social Science and Director of the Sheffield Q-Step Centre (The University of Sheffield); Statistical Ambassador (Royal Statistical Society), University of Sheffield