How many Americans really have lost touch with reality?
Academic rigor, journalistic flair
Articles on Polls
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In the wake of the Capitol riots and baseless claims of election fraud, Trump ends his presidency with his worst approval rating since December 2017.
Whether you are predicting the outcome of an election or studying how effective a new drug is, there will always be some uncertainty. A margin of error is how statisticians measure that uncertainty.
People know a lot about their friends and neighbors – and pollsters can learn from that information, if they ask.
Wisconsin proved to be the 'tipping point' state in the US presidential election, which Joe Biden won by just 0.6% - despite being likely to win the popular vote by 4-5%.
What did this year's election maps rightly or wrongly tell us?
Most polls are pointing to a Biden win, but it will be the "swing states" where the vote is close that will hold the key to who takes the White House.
There was a time when well-known journalists resented preelection polls and didn’t mind saying so. One even said he felt “secret glee and relief when the polls go wrong.” Why did they feel this way?
Nearly three-quarters of fans say they won’t attend games until a vaccine has been developed.
One way in which Latino voters vary is where they or their forebears came from. In states like Florida, that difference matters.
Polls have become an essential component of the news coverage of presidential campaigns. That may affect who voters decide to back on an election day.
In a survey, Trump supporters showed the lowest faith in the Supreme Court, the federal government, the media and other pillars of society.
When candidates beat pollsters' expectations, that can mean more positive media coverage.
In recent years, voters have shifted their views on issues based upon the positions of politicians – even when that shift clashes with their ideology.
The true number of people who do not favor either of the two major political parties in the US has actually remained stable in recent years.
Wages, starlight and polls can all be interpreted using statistics. While probabilities, medians and noise can be challenging, a simple dice can provide insights into statistics.
The very first scientific horse race poll, which took place 85 years ago, was shrouded in secrecy and may have changed history – even though it was faulty.
If you want to understand the American public, don't look at national poll numbers.
Tactical voting and shifting party allegiances mean the final week could change everything.
A look at the challenges of producing and consuming election polls.
Top contributors
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Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
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Professor of Economics and Finance. Director of the Betting Research Unit and the Political Forecasting Unit at Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University
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Professor of Politics, University of Strathclyde
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Research Professor at the Center for Political Studies, University of Michigan
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Senior Lecturer, School of Political and Social Inquiry, Monash University
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PhD Candidate, University of Western Australia
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Associate Professor in American Politics and Foreign Policy, US Studies Centre, University of Sydney
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Principal Consultant, University of Western Australia
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Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra
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Adjunct Research Fellow; Journalist, University of Notre Dame Australia
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Professor of Geography, University of Bristol
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Professor, Department of Government, University of Essex
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Senior Lecturer in Quantitative Social Science and Director of the Sheffield Q-Step Centre (The University of Sheffield); Statistical Ambassador (Royal Statistical Society), University of Sheffield
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Professor of Sociology, University of California, Irvine
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Professor of Political Science, LaGrange College
