Just because a variant spreads faster, it doesn’t necessarily mean it has a higher R0.
We published an article earlier this month that contained incorrect estimates for the basic reproduction number (R0) for COVID subvariants BA.4/BA.5 and BA.2. We have now corrected the error, but I wanted…
Delta is more contagious and appears to be more deadly. And it’s more likely to land those infected in hospital and intensive care. Here’s what the latest evidence says about the dominant variant.
Sequencing the whole genome of patient virus samples lets scientists watch for new variants.
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By merging genomics with classical epidemiology, researchers are able to predict new disease outbreaks based on which viral variants are on the rise.
A few people in the crowd will be responsible for the bulk of a disease’s spread.
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Epidemiological data suggests that 80% of COVID-19 cases can be traced to just 20% of those infected with SARS-CoV-2.
Getting the control measures right is critical.
R is still useful for public health, but it should not be the only metric we use to understand virus transmission.
The latest Doherty Institute modelling also indicates the spectre of ‘unidentified community transmission’ is very unlikely indeed.
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I’m here to say: make sure you read beyond the headlines.
How do mathematical models of disease work?
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An audio version of an in depth article on why mathematical modelling is crucial to understanding pandemics like the new coronavirus.
To how many others will one infected person spread the infection?
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Epidemiologists want to quickly identify any emerging disease’s potential to spread far and wide. Dependent on a number of factors, this R0 number helps them figure that out and plan accordingly.
A horseshoe bat chasing a moth. Horseshoe bats were the source of SARS. Scientists consider bats to be a possible source of coronavirus.
DE AGOSTINI PICTURE LIBRARY / Contributor
Some of the world’s worst diseases have come from animals. Bats, cows, camels and horses have all contributed. Now, scientists are working to know which animal introduced the new coronavirus.