The United States and the United Kingdom are launching ongoing missile and drone strikes against the Yemeni armed group Ansarallah, commonly known as the Houthis. A faction in the ongoing Yemen civil war, the Houthis had been attacking ships in the Red Sea in the months preceding the U.S.-British strikes.
These kinds of strikes, however, don’t dissuade the Houthis, a predominately Shia minority group in Yemen. They’re continuing to attack ships in the region.
Continuing to bomb Houthi targets in Yemen, furthermore, will undoubtedly escalate tensions in the Middle East. The Houthis have said they’re attacking ships affiliated with Israel in response to Israel’s ground invasion and blockade of the Gaza Strip.
With the U.S. reputation in the region already in tatters amid mass opposition to Israel’s attack on Gaza, these strikes are creating unintended consequences.
Yemen’s civil war
The Yemen civil war is one of the world’s most protracted conflicts. It officially started in 2014 when the Houthis seized the capital of Sana'a, but multiple entities have become involved since then.
Most notably, Saudi Arabia’s intervention in the conflict and subsequent blockade helped create ongoing famine and food insecurity in Yemen.
Since the outset of Yemen’s civil war, the Houthis have received Iranian support. For both ideological and geopolitical reasons, Iran has helped the Houthis in their efforts to seize the country. While Iran has continually denied claims that it provides military aid to the Houthis, most outside observers agree that it has done so in the past and continues to now.
The Houthis are invaluable partners to Iran because of their position along the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. This narrow channel is responsible for a significant portion of the world’s cargo and oil shipping. While most vessels can avoid the region by sailing around Africa, this detour increases costs for shipowners and, by extension, consumers.
The Houthis, either acting in their own interests or for Iran, escalated their attacks against ships in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait after Israel’s attack on Gaza. Outside of one cargo ship the Houthi seized in November, however, their attacks have been largely unsuccessful.
More time needed for anti-piracy efforts
Piracy in maritime shipping is not a new phenomenon and has been a persistent scourge throughout human history. In contemporary history, however, multilateral efforts to combat piracy have been largely successful in limiting its impact.
Multinational efforts off the coast of Somalia and in the Malacca Strait in southeast Asia significantly reduced the piracy threat in those regions.
Given the past success of such measures, American Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s announcement in late December of an international maritime task force was both practical and had the potential to solve the issue. The problem, however, is that such efforts take time to succeed. The U.S. didn’t give the initiative the time it needed.
U.S.-led strikes against the Houthis in Yemen only stood a chance of success if neighbouring states, most notably Saudi Arabia, combined the American air presence with a ground threat. Saudi Arabia, however, won’t get involved as it seeks to extricate itself from Yemen.
Given the anger towards Israelis in the region, as well as the Houthi’s avowed goal to strike Israel, countering the Houthi would be politically dangerous for Riyadh’s government.
The Houthis know the Americans lack regional allies and therefore they’ve not been deterred, but emboldened. In the aftermath of the U.S.-U.K. strikes, Houthis have vowed to continue to target ships in the Red Sea and are making good on the threat.
U.S. President Joe Biden has even been forced to admit that the ongoing airstrikes are not having the desired effect of deterring the Houthis, but says they’re necessary to protect merchant and military vessels.
Blowback in the broader region
International norms and laws are effective so long as everyone adheres to them. Norms and laws, furthermore, are most vulnerable immediately after a state has breached them, which the U.S. did when it violated Yemen’s sovereignty.
Read more: Western moral credibility is dying along with thousands of Gaza citizens
Nowhere is this more evident than in Iran’s actions in the aftermath of the strikes against the Houthis.
Because the Houthis are a key partner of Iran, Tehran’s government apparently believed it had to take action in case their credibility became compromised. Iran conducted strikes against targets in Iraq and Syria. Iran claims the strikes in Iraq were against an Israeli spy installation.
While these events would have been troubling in their own right in terms of the impact on regional stability, Iran followed up these strikes with ones in Pakistan, and Pakistan retaliated.
Fortunately, both Iran and Pakistan are emphasizing that they’re not targeting the other country, but rather non-state militants.
That said, Iran’s strike against Pakistan occurs as the country is politically vulnerable in the aftermath of the army’s takedown of Prime Minister Imran Khan. With the Pakistani military unable to appear weak as the country faces crucial elections next month, the potential for events to escalate are very real.
Since the outset of Israel’s invasion of Gaza, the goal of nearly everyone involved, particularly the U.S., has been to prevent the conflict from escalating regionally. Recent events are compromising this goal, including strikes by Israel in Syria and an Iranian-backed militia’s missile-and-rocket attack against U.S. forces in Iraq.
By abandoning the focus on building a maritime coalition force and instead resorting to air strikes, the U.S. and its allies may have inadvertently created the situation they sought to avoid.