The prime minister is being optimistic at best with is reading – but these results to suggest Labour’s win might not be as decisive as polls currently suggest.
Academic rigor, journalistic flair
Articles on UK election 2024
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In a dismal night for the government, one result towers above the others.
Local election results are strong predictors of general elections held in the same or following year.
Members have been blamed for choosing badly in recent years, but MPs played their part too.
Even though Keir Starmer is more comfortable being associated with the leaders of the last Labour government than Jeremy Corbyn or Ed Miliband, this is not a return to the past.
It’s a rare event for an MP to leave government to join the opposition. But the timing here may mean voters will hardly notice.
Mayoral votes, a by-election triggered by a scandal and a prime minister under threat. It’s a big week.
First past the post tends to deliver the winning party more seats in parliament than they’d get under a truly proportional voting system – but this year is off the charts.
Are Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves focusing on the same criteria for economic competence as Britain’s voters?
When the public sees an institution is failing, they generally lose trust in it. Not so with the health service.
Modelling bolsters idea that fact checking is a useful defence against the flow of disinformation.
The first-past-the-post electoral system has helped the Conservatives stay in power for much of the past century. Now it could lock them out.
Mordaunt is predicted to lose her seat at the election so it’s now or never for her – but the path to victory is laden with obstacles.
As the Trump v Biden contest shapes up ahead of the US presidential election in November, the polls are not favourable to the incumbent president.
Labour’s Muslim vote is concentrated in safe seats – but with an electoral mountain to climb, no contest can be taken for granted.
It may not be an election winner but the budget contained multiple traps for Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves.
There is no manual for a job at the top of government but a few golden rules are largely agreed upon by those who have experienced ministerial life.
Disillusioned Conservative voters have had a string of opportunities to make their voices heard.
With an unprecedented number of votes happening around the world, the information environment will be chaotic, to say the least.
AI is likely to be used to help us run elections in the near future but there are risks as well as reward.
Top contributors
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Paul Whiteley is a Friend of The Conversation.Professor, Department of Government, University of Essex
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Professor of Mathematics, University of Surrey
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Professor of Politics, University of Liverpool
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Professor of Public Policy, University of Manchester
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Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
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Reader in Behavioural Sciences, Aston University
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Senior Lecturer in British Politics, University of Liverpool
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Professor of Global Affairs, University of East London
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Senior Lecturer in Politics, Lancaster University
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Professor of Marketing, Warwick Business School, University of Warwick
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Associate Professor in Journalism Studies, University of Stirling
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Regents Professor of Strategic Communication, Texas Tech University, Texas Tech University
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Senior Lecturer in Politics, University of Surrey
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Professor of Public Policy, Northumbria University, Newcastle
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Professor of Politics, Queen Mary University of London
