Scientists are playing a significant role in the Arctic region, helping to educate the world about its unique ecosystem along with the ongoing geopolitical positioning by Arctic and non-Arctic states.
Scientific research has been central in helping determine the boundaries of the continental shelf in the Arctic region to establish which states can exploit any natural resources found in the area. Arctic states are spending millions trying to document their territorial claims.
The scientific data has been presented to experts at the United Nations Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf, who have then issued their recommendations to states in an effort to ascertain who owns what.
Scientific research in polar regions has also been used by non-Arctic states like China, India and South Korea to vie for observer status on the Arctic Council, the primary forum of co-operation in the region.
Furthermore, the sustained presence of China, India and the United Kingdom in Svalbard — a territory in the high Arctic under Norwegian sovereignty but open to scientists from countries that are parties to the Svalbard Treaty — is the most obvious illustration of this interest by non-Arctic states in the region.
China in the Arctic
Global attention on the Arctic has intensified amid global warming, particularly since 2007. China is among the countries that have received the most amount of attention for its interest in the Arctic.
Its emergence as a global superpower, its impressive development of polar technology — including icebreakers — and its creation of an official Arctic policy have raised eyebrows about China’s Arctic ambitions.
Chinese activity in the region has focused on the central Arctic Ocean, which is considered international waters beyond any state’s jurisdiction. This allows non-Arctic states like China to become more engaged than they can in the rest of the Arctic.
China has signed and ratified an international agreement that prohibits commercial fisheries in these waters until at least 2037. Science is at the heart of this moratorium — scientists assess if sizeable fish stocks can be harvested from these waters and if so, they help develop sustainability guidelines to ensure the abundance of these stocks.
As China prepares to embark on its 14th annual Arctic expedition this summer, it’s important to understand how Chinese scientific research is evolving in the region.
China’s Arctic science
The rise of China since the early 2000s as a major Arctic science producer has continued well into the 2020s. Using Web of Science — a bibliometric database used to measure, evaluate and track scientific research — we can see the growing presence of Chinese scientists publishing on the Arctic region.
There’s been a five-fold increase of Chinese scientists in the percentage of total scientific articles on the Arctic from 2000 to 2024. This increase has occurred concurrently with a significant decrease in the proportion of scientists from the United States, and to a lesser extent Canada, publishing on the topic.
As we look for areas of particular focus within the Arctic Ocean, two locations stand out: the central Arctic Ocean and Gakkel Ridge, a mountainous formation on the sea floor.
Increased Chinese scientific publications on both topics are the result of its annual Arctic expeditions. For the central Arctic Ocean, the increase is eight-fold (from one per cent to eight per cent) and six-fold for Gakkel Ridge (from two per cent to 12 per cent).
Both the central Arctic Ocean and Gakkel Ridge are critical to Chinese geopolitical interests. For the central Arctic, the potential establishment of a regional fisheries management organization is central to China’s scientific research, which aims to gather additional knowledge about this little-known ecosystem.
Lifting the moratorium on commercial fisheries in the central Arctic Ocean is dependent on establishing sustainable guidelines to ensure the long-term health and survival of fish stocks in this area.
The Gakkel Ridge possesses hydrothermal vents that could contain vast amounts of critical minerals. This part of the sea floor has been contested, with Russia arguing it’s a continuation of its continental mass.
Some have speculated that part of the Gakkel Ridge could become a site of mineral exploitation by non-Arctic states, including China. As of the first half of the 2020s, China is now the fourth country generating the most knowledge on this part of the Arctic region.
Little western involvement
This scientific research is produced in a peculiar fashion, with little engagement with western publications and scientists.
According to Scopus, a database encompassing scientific articles, 45 per cent of articles by Chinese scientists on the Central Arctic ocean are published in outlets run or sponsored by Chinese research institutes, especially the Chinese Society for Oceanography and the Polar Research Institute of China.
This corresponds to similar findings by researchers Mayline Strouk of the University of Edinburgh and Marion Maisonobe of University Paris Cité. They have determined that China, as well as other non-Arctic states like India and South Korea, has pursued an approach of scientific autonomy, limiting any collaboration with scientists from other countries.
That’s also reflected in the authorship of scientific papers. About 65 per cent of articles published by a Chinese author on the central Arctic Ocean from 2010 to May 2024 were authored solely by Chinese researchers, with no co-authorship or participation from non-Chinese researchers.
A minority of articles were written by a multinational team of scientists that included one Chinese author, indicating that Chinese scientists did not seek to involve non-Chinese researchers in their work.
This was the case even before some western countries like Canada restricted some areas of scientific co-operation with Chinese scientists.
Read more: Why Alberta must rethink its ban on Canada-China university collaborations
This number is particularly high considering China participated in the Mosaic Expedition alongside scientists from 19 other countries in 2019.
The expedition generated a wealth of knowledge and insights as the research vessel remained for a whole year in the central Arctic Ocean, immobilized by a thick ice cover. This multi-national endeavour didn’t result in any changes to Chinese Arctic scientific research, which remained mostly authored only by Chinese scientists for Chinese-run publications.
Implications for Arctic states
What does this mean for Arctic states?
Simply put, the need to invest in Arctic science is critical as new players are becoming increasingly dominant when it comes to research about the region.
The presence of Arctic states in scientific publications is declining. That means important knowledge is escaping Arctic nations, and scientific priorities are increasingly reflecting the interests of foreign nations located outside the region.
Countries like China are conducting scientific research without involving scientists from other countries. This is ominous, since science is supposed to be an open, transparent and collaborative enterprise — not exactly hallmarks of the Chinese regime.
Investing in scientific research on the central Arctic Ocean is particularly important, since rules and legal regimes that will apply there will largely be guided by a fulsome scientific understanding of the region.