Housing policy is a stark point of difference at this election. While the government took promising steps to set up social housing finance, it has yet to give any sign it will finish what it started.
Though it is generally believed a minor miracle would be needed to rescue the Morrison government, the Coalition judges the best way to “save furniture” is to wave the fear flags.
At times we are told Labor’s capital gains tax policy will hit mainly high earners. At other times, low earners. The truth, uncovered by our microsimulation model, tells us something about ourselves.
In his Sunday announcement, Shorten says the ALP’s ten-year plan to build 250,000 houses and units would be Australia’s “biggest ever investment in affordable housing”.
It is thought that it doesn’t help much to cut official interest rates toward or beyond zero, and maybe it doesn’t, but new research suggests the answer has a lot to do with the housing market.
Housing affordability has declined significantly over the past few decades. Slowly reducing negative gearing and capital gains, and switching to property taxes, could reverse this trend.
The Greens plan would bring in “a Buffett rule” to ensure higher income earners paid their fair share of tax by limiting deductions made by those earning more than $300,000.
There is a risk that affordable housing policy may be colonised by for-profit interests if Australia imports the wrong rental housing ideas from overseas.
A modest rebalancing of federal tax policy toward build-to-rent housing could fill affordable housing funding gaps. Australian funds are already investing in such a scheme in the US.
Housing experts writing for The Conversation largely agree on the government policies that are causing negative distortions in the market and the wider economy. And supply is not the key concern.