Without the AU Transition Mission, the Somali army should prepare to face several hundred additional attacks each year.
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Al-Shabaab remains a strong regional actor and has proved itself to be a resilient force. It’s time to weigh a non-war strategic option
Al-Shabaab’s evolution over nearly two decades has been centred around three major goals.
Ethiopia’s direct engagement with Somalia’s regional governments will likely weaken the prospects of restoring a functioning Somali state.
The obstacles the new government must confront to earn the confidence of the people are challenging.
The core obstacle to stability in Somalia is the lack of agreement among political, religious, and business elites on how to govern their country.
President Mohamud’s main challenge is to restore security in the capital Mogadishu and elsewhere.
