Polling for the 2022 midterms was more accurate than the dramatically wrong predictions of 2016 and 2020, leading one pollster to boast, ‘The death of polling has been greatly exaggerated.’
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The U.S. midterms revealed a generational shift away from youth voter apathy. The apathetic, in fact, seem to be those trying to accurately measure public opinion using outdated methods.
Polling only provides a snapshot of the current moment but modelling across decades can help us predict the next election result.
Will some polls misfire in prominent races in the 2022 midterms? Probably. Will such errors be eye-catching? In some cases, perhaps. Will the news media continue to tout polls? Undoubtedly.
It’s bad for the party of government – and the closer you look, the worse it gets.
With two months to go until the US mid-terms, President Joe Biden has seen a significant lift in his approval ratings.
Angola’s 2022 election is the first in which citizens born after the war are old enough to vote.
There have been few if any elections when, in the last week, it has been the ‘uncommitted’ voters who have turned things around.
Labor needs substantially more than 50% of the two-party preferred vote – 51.8% according to the pendulum – to win the majority of seats, 76. This equates to a swing of 3.3 percentage points.
While the latest polls show the Coalition struggling to gain ground on Labor in two-party preferred terms, Scott Morrison maintains his lead as preferred prime minister.
Two-party preferred (2PP) has always been considered the best measure of who might win government. But at this election, nothing is certain.
Labor’s two-party preferred vote drops for the second time running, a concerning sign at the start of an election campaign.
At the 2019 election, the polls got it seriously wrong. State polls and election results suggest this may have been corrected, but it’s by no means certain.
While some oligarchs have broken ranks with the Kremlin, there is no sign yet other elites are so discontented as to take action against Putin.
Would Australians vote for an Indigenous Voice in the Constitution, or just approve the parliament simply legislating a Voice?
Australians may support one, both, or neither.
Oral sex is common among young people. Protection from STIs is not.
It’s the first time since Resolve began doing its monthly surveys last April that Labor has been ahead of the Coalition on primary votes.
Backbenchers are rattling their sabres and a brutal byelection loss has made it all so much worse.
At first glance, the polls suggest the government isn’t feeling the pressure. But there’s another way to look at the situation.
Polling results suggest the ousting of Michael McCormack in favour of Joyce could hurt the Coalition
Kontributor teratas
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Paul Whiteley adalah Sahabat The Conversation.Professor, Department of Government, University of Essex
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Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
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Professor Emeritus of Communication, American University School of Communication
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Ashbel Smith Professor, School of Economic, Political and Policy Sciences, University of Texas at Dallas
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Professor of Economics and Finance. Director of the Betting Research Unit and the Political Forecasting Unit at Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University
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Honorary Professor, University of Sydney
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Professor of Electoral Geography, University of Sheffield
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Emeritus Professor of Politics and International Relations, Macquarie University
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Senior Research Fellow, National Centre for Social Research, and Professor of Politics, University of Strathclyde
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Emeritus professor, Monash University
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Director, La Trobe Asia, and Professor of International Relations, La Trobe University
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Professor of Political Science and Public Policy, University of Southampton
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2024 Oxford University visiting research fellow RIJS; Professor of Political Communication., La Trobe University
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Assistant Professor of Mathematics -- Statistics, Knox College
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Professor of Research Methodology, Director of National Centre for Research Methods, University of Southampton
