Matthew Gerstenberger

Matthew is a seismologist who focuses on earthquake forecasting and seismic hazard modelling.

Matthew leads the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) - a scientific model that uses geodetic modelling and historical earthquake data to estimate the likelihood and strength of earthquake shaking in different parts of New Zealand. The NSHM is widely used by government and industry to estimate the likely impact of earthquakes on the country’s land, buildings and infrastructure.

In 2022 a significant revision of the model was released. This was a three-year project which helps to improve our understanding of risks to safety, security, and the economy from seismic events. Working in partnership with central and local government, engineers, universities and other Crown Research Institutes, and with input from international scientists and expert end users, the revision will lead to better management of, and responses to, natural hazard events, as well as influencing and improving infrastructure and building code legislation and requirements. This work will have ultimate benefits to the people of New Zealand.

During seismic events, he works alongside GNS Science’s earthquake forecasting team to provide forecasting data and probabilistic modelling to assist in the event response and recovery phases.

Before joining GNS, Matt worked on a range of seismology projects around the world, creating better understanding and quantification of uncertainties, developing testable models, methods for propagating uncertainties and forecasting and hazard models. He developed an aftershock hazard forecasting tool, which has been extensively used by the US Geological Survey and featured prominently in New Zealand’s response to the Canterbury earthquakes.

Matthew is a member of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering and an Associate Editor for the Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America.