Peter Martin, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University
The Conversation’s expert panel expects the Reserve Bank to cut interest rates two to three times over the next 18 months, with the first cut likely in March.
Peter Martin, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University
Only one-third of the top economists surveyed give Jim Chalmers’ third budget an A or a B, down from two-thirds in 2023. Many say it left big issues unaddressed.
Tuesday’s budget will show there has been an improvement of $10.5 billion in the bottom line. The update forecasted a deficit of $1.1 billion for 2023-24.
Peter Martin, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University
Australia’s economy is already alarmingly weak. A big cut in government spending in next week’s budget could push us from a per capita recession into an actual recession.
Every time the Reserve Bank has pushed up interest rates in order to take money out of the system, it’s also been putting money in, in a way it didn’t use to.
Peter Martin, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University
The Conversation’s expert panel expects inflation to continue to fall, but more gradually, and it expects the RBA to be slow in responding. Unemployment should climb and economic growth weaken.
Peter Martin, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University
Per person, we’re spending less this year – even on this year’s much hyped Black Friday sales. If that continues over summer and inflation stays low, a rate hike in February 2024 looks unlikely.
Up until December 9 1983, officials used to announce each morning how much the dollar was worth. Even bankers were shocked about letting the market set the price – but it’s served Australia well.
Peter Martin, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University
Sure, a good many of us don’t trust politicians – but surely politicians ought to trust politicians. History shows why they might one day need to overturn a Reserve Bank decision.
Peter Martin, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University
Australian financial markets are now pointing to a close to zero chance of further rate rises – with a fair chance of a rate cut next year. That’s thanks to the latest news from the US and UK.
Peter Martin, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University
It’ll now be a frugal Christmas in many Australian homes. But there is a glimmer of good news: if we do tighten our belts, rates could start to come down by as early as the middle of next year.
Wednesday’s September-quarter figures, showing inflation is still uncomfortably high, set off speculation about whether the Reserve Bank will increase interest rates again
Inflation has slipped from 6% to 5.4%, but the price of petrol climbed 7.2% in the September quarter. Much depends on what the RBA thinks will happen from here on.
Peter Martin, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University
Petrol prices have pushed inflation up. At its next meeting, the Reserve Bank board is going to have to decide if that warrants an increase in interest rates.