Articles on Reserve Bank

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Things will continue to look good enough for long enough to help the government fight the election. Beyond that, the Conversation Economic Panel is worried. Wes Mountain/The Conversation

No surplus, no share market growth, no lift in wage growth. Economic survey points to bleaker times post-election

The Conversation has assembled a forecasting team of 19 academic economists from 12 universities across six states. Together, they assign a 25% probability to a recession within two years.
Whether there is a floor beneath which cuts in interest rate are ineffective depends in part on house prices. Shutterstock

Vital Signs: when cutting interest rates might not help

It is thought that it doesn't help much to cut official interest rates toward or beyond zero, and maybe it doesn't, but new research suggests the answer has a lot to do with the housing market.
Inflation has been doggedly low, so it’s not clear that the 2.5% expectation for inflation is going to turn out to be right. Dan Peled/AAP

Vital Signs: the RBA’s still longing for Goldilocks growth

This week's strong growth in full-time employment shows a robust labour market. This only deepens the puzzle of why inflation is so low at the same time.
Data from the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) reveals the average balance on housing loans has barely trended upwards over the last five years. Tracey Nearmy/AAP

Three charts on mortgage stress: it isn’t as bad as you might think

When you look at the data (in three charts) on mortgage stress, the systemic risk of people not being able to repay their home loans appears small.

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