The 55 leading economists surveyed by the Economic Society see few signs of Australia aping the US, where inflation has surged to its highest level in 30 years.
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Jobs, economic growth, wages growth and even home price growth are likely to look less threatening by the time we are asked to vote.
In its quarterly statement on the economy the Bank is at pains to suggest it won’t be lifting interest rates quickly.
Sub-2% mortgages are a thing of the past. The Reserve Bank’s governor has signalled variable rates will rise sooner than previously expected, but says he doesn’t expect it in 2022.
The Reserve Bank’s Term Funding Facility was meant to support lending during COVID. Instead the funds might be ending up in the accounts of bank shareholders.
The bank’s decision to focus on just one thing puts the onus on the government to take action to rein in home prices.
Without extra measures, aiming for wage growth in the aggregate will leave many Australians behind.
The Reserve Bank has limitless access to Australian dollars and a reputation to protect.
Now that we are recovering from recession, there’s no telling how low we could push the unemployment rate. One estimate is 3.5%.
Our continued recovery depends on how much we spend and how quickly we get the vaccine.
Governor Lowe believes the unemployment rate will need to fall well below 5% before inflation climbs to the point where he needs to jack up rates.
If the Reserve Bank had acted as it usually does, the cash rate would have dipped briefly negative in August.
Yes, the bank would effectively pay you to borrow money. But negative interest rates won’t please savers, nor will they meet the big challenges of economic recovery.
There’s more to that Coronavirus. Even before it, businesses weren’t keen to invest.
The most important change is a guarantee about the future, one the RBA can be held to.
Guaranteeing that it will overshoot its target for some time is the best way of getting inflation up.
Almost all of the Reserve Bank’s new Term Funding Facility has ended up in the hands of big businesses. There’s a way to make sure small businesses get it.
Its central scenario is the worst recession in 70 years. Its worst case scenario has the effects lingering for a decade.
The global financial crisis taught us recoveries needn’t be V-shaped.
Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe has laid out a road map for measures to drive a range of other interest rates down, now that its cash rate has hit effective zero.
Top contributors
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Professor of Economics, UNSW Sydney
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Visiting Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University
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Lecturer in Economics, Monash University
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Senior Lecturer, Research School of Economics, and Research Associate, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Australian National University
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John Hawkins is a Friend of The Conversation.
Senior Lecturer, Canberra School of Politics, Economics and Society, University of Canberra
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Adjunct Professor, Swinburne University of Technology
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Emeritus Professor of Finance, The University of Melbourne
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Visiting Fellow, Macquarie University Applied Finance Centre, Macquarie University
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Professor of Economics and National Senior Teaching Fellow, Griffith University
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Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra
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Industry Professor, University of Technology Sydney
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Program Director, Trade and Investment, United States Studies Centre, University of Sydney
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Professor, School of Economics, The University of Queensland
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Professor, Griffith Business School, Griffith University
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Professor, Monash University
