The idea that scientists could warn a region that a big quake was coming at a certain time – with enough advance notice for large-scale preparation and evacuation – remains a dream, not a reality.
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Articles on Earthquake forecasting
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We may never know exactly when the next big quake will hit – but we can have a pretty good idea of the odds.
When researchers look at CCTV footage of how people really react during earthquakes – as opposed to what they report after the fact – it looks like alerts aren’t yet inspiring protective action.
When will the next earthquake come? We don’t know, but that doesn’t mean we can’t get our cities ready.
New Zealand’s Alpine Fault has ruptured in a major earthquake on average every 250 years. New research shows a 75% chance of the next one within 50 years, and it’s likely to be magnitude 8 or more.
Research shows that satellite GPS measurements could provide a better tool for earthquake forecasting.
Top contributors
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Associate Professor in Geophysics, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington
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Senior lecturer, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington
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Senior Seismologist, Geoscience Australia
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Professor of Seismology and Geohazards, University of Washington
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Earthquake Scientist, Monash University
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Professor of tectonics and geophysics, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington
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Full Professor, Psychology and Clark Honors College, University of Oregon
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Seismologist, GNS Science
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Professor, Australian National University
