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The Shadow RBA Board recommends what the RBA should do, not predicts what it will do. Image sourced from www.shutterstock.com

The RBA cut rates, we said it shouldn’t. Here’s why.

I am a member of the “Shadow” RBA Board, which is made up of a collection of industry and academic economists. Just before every meeting of the real-world RBA Board, we announce our recommendations for…
There is a silver lining to the end of the mining boom. Image sourced from Shutterstock.com

Turning headwinds into tailwinds: the economy can correct course

What is the new normal for the Australian economy? With unemployment rising, commodity prices reaching new lows, and confidence subdued, is the Australian economy prepared to handle offshore headwinds…
Reserve Bank Governor Glenn Stevens has helped Treasurer Joe Hockey make his case for boosting the economy, but will it be enough? Alan Porritt/AAP

How to multiply the rate cut impact and unshackle the economy

This week’s Reserve Bank interest rate move surprised virtually everyone, bringing the cash rate to 2.25%, yet another historic low. Despite Australian Treasurer Joe Hockey suggesting the rate cut means…
The less surprised markets are on interest rate moves the better. Paul Miller/AAP

Quelle surprise? Why it’s good for markets to second-guess the RBA

Though markets had somewhat priced in an Australian interest rate cut yesterday, many analysts and commentators were still left surprised. The rate had not been cut for 18 months. Over that period commentary…
The drop in oil prices, and consequently fuel costs, is driving down inflation and helping the Australian economy. Andy Rain/EPA/AAP

Interest rates decision could boil down to oil: RBA Shadow Board

The CAMA RBA Shadow Board is a project by the Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, based at the ANU, which asks industry and academic economists what interest rate the Reserve Bank of Australia should…
Will it put Russia in the black or red? Nata789 via Shutterstock

Huge Russian rate hike plays roulette with the economy

Russia’s Central Bank has raised its key interest rate from 10.5% to 17% in an emergency move that is designed to halt the ongoing collapse of the rouble, which has accelerated in recent weeks. The dramatic…
The People’s Bank of China recently cut interest rates to stimulate the economy. But it probably won’t fix the real problem. Reuters

China’s interest rate cut is mixed blessing for the world economy

China’s central bank surprised most observers last month when it announced its first interest rate cut in more than two years. The move is intended to bolster growth in the world’s second-largest economy…
It’s been a steady-as-she-goes year for Reserve Bank Governor Glenn Stevens. Alan Porritt/AAP

Rates tipped to stay on hold in final RBA decision for 2014

The CAMA RBA Shadow Board is a project by the Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, based at the ANU, which asks industry and academic economists what interest rate the Reserve Bank of Australia should…
Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens is closely watching rising house prices. Dean Lewins/AAP

RBA’s holding pattern is likely to stay, for now

The CAMA RBA Shadow Board is a project by the Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, based at the ANU, which asks industry and academic economists what interest rate the Reserve Bank of Australia should…
Janet Yellen, chair of the Federal Reserve board. EPA/Jim Lo Scalzo

How to interpret the Fed as it ends QE and morphs into a hawk

The US Federal Reserve this week has moved one step closer to lifting interest rates by ending its controversial bond-buying program. This begins a long-anticipated process that will take many months to…
Janet Yellen will make waves next year. International Monetary Fund

What will happen when the US Fed starts hiking rates?

As the US economy emerges from recession, the prospect of the US Federal Reserve raising interest rates grabs the attention of the financial markets more and more. US rates have been close to zero for…
Housing policy not going to be easy street for the UK government. Lifeofgalileo

House prices falling? Don’t bet the bank on it

The news that the British housing market may have reached a turning point, with one forecast showing a price fall in 2015 and a drop in London prices for the first time in three years, will have been welcome…
With the Australian dollar continuing to fall, the local economy is expected to rebalance. Paul Miller/AAP

Falling Aussie dollar to weigh on interest rates decision

The CAMA RBA Shadow Board is a project by the Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, based at the ANU, which asks industry and academic economists what interest rate the Reserve Bank of Australia should…
CPI? Bond rate? Surcharge? What’s the best and fairest way to charge interest (or not) on student loans? Shutterstock

The best compromise for HELP loan interest rates

The government’s plan to charge up to 6% interest on HELP loans has been widely attacked as unfair. Many critics, including Shadow Education Minister Kim Carr, the Group of Eight universities, Universities…

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