# Articles on Statistics

## If 1% of COVID-19 cases result in death, does that mean you have a 1% chance of dying if you catch it? A mathematician explains the difference between a population statistic and your personal risk

It’s not entirely accurate to say that you’re more likely to die in a car accident than in a plane crash. Chances are, you’re not the average person.

## Best time to play Tim Hortons’ Roll up to Win? The middle of the night dramatically increases your odds

Statistics have many real-world applications — including what’s the best time to play Tim Hortons’ Roll up to Win contest. A stats prof explains how he found the precise time with the best odds.

## Declines in math readiness underscore the urgency of math awareness

Nearly four decades after President Ronald Reagan proclaimed the first National Math Awareness Week, math readiness and enrollment in college math programs continue to decline.

## Robodebt not only broke the laws of the land – it also broke laws of mathematics

I crunched the numbers, and they suggest the Robodebt algorithm’s error rate was on the order of 80%.

## Australia’s new pay equality law risks failing women – unless we make this simple fix

We will not eradicate the gender pay gap using bad statistics. Here’s what we need to do instead.

## A brief history of statistics in football: why actual goals remain king in predicting who will win

Despite being 25 years old, the Dixon-Coles model is still the gold standard of football prediction

## World Cup 2022: how injuries could affect the rest of the domestic and Champions League season

From factors like the number of extra games to the time non-competing players go on break, having the World Cup in the middle of the domestic season could increase injuries.

## Thousands more Australians died in 2022 than expected. COVID was behind the majority of them

There were deaths from COVID and deaths with COVID – but other deaths are also likely linked to the virus’s impact on our health and our medical care.

## Heads or tails: What statistical models tell us about the probability of living beyond 110

The oldest person in the world, Kane Tanaka of Japan, died in April 2022 at 119 years. The record of Jeanne Calment of France, who died at 122, has stood for almost 25 years. Will it be beaten?

## People don’t mate randomly – but the flawed assumption that they do is an essential part of many studies linking genes to diseases and traits

People don’t randomly select who they have children with. And that means an underlying assumption in research that tries to link particular genes to certain diseases or traits is wrong.

## UN slavery estimate raises question: Are 50 million people really enslaved today?

Global estimates of modern-day slavery by the United Nations reveal improving methods for calculating the data.

## Beyond GDP: changing how we measure progress is key to tackling a world in crisis – three leading experts

Amid the global threats posed by climate change, spiralling energy costs, insecure employment and widening inequality, the need to rethink our notion of progress is now an urgent priority.

## Old age isn’t a modern phenomenon – many people lived long enough to grow old in the olden days, too

Nasty, brutish – but not necessarily short. Here’s how archaeologists know plenty of people didn’t die young.

## Women are better at statistics than they think

Female statistics students had higher final exam grades than their male peers, even though they had less confidence in their statistics abilities at the start of the semester.

## The mathematics of human behaviour: how my new model can spot liars and counter disinformation

Mathematical model suggests information processing lies at the heart of decision making.

## The ‘hot hand’ is a real basketball phenomenon – but only some players have the ability to go on these basket-making streaks

A study shows that a select group of NBA players really do go on hot streaks by making more shots in a row than statistics suggest they should.

## Major study shows the need to improve how scientists approach early-stage cancer research

Preclinical studies are an important part of biomedical research, often guiding future trials in humans. Failure to replicate research results suggests a need to increase the quality of studies.

## Want to master Wordle? Here’s the best strategy for your first guess

Whether you want to win with as few guesses as possible, or you just want to figure out the right word before running out of turns, a scholar offers some tips.

## Did male and female dinosaurs differ? A new statistical technique is helping answer the question

The lack of large numbers of fossils makes it hard to study sexual dimorphism in dinosaurs. But a new statistical approach offers insight into this question and others across science.

## Do the math when measuring social distancing: two metres is not the same as six feet

Why haven’t people gotten upset about how our social distancing signs are fostering innumeracy?