Articles sur Seat analyses

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Over there - what are the key states and seats that will decide the election? Here’s our handy guide. AAP/Lyndon Mechielsen

Election 2013 states and seats: the full package

From the moment prime minister Kevin Rudd called the election on August 4, The Conversation has kept you up-to-date and informed with the best political analysis from Australia’s sharpest academic minds…
Labor MP Darren Cheeseman faces an uphill battle to retain Corangamite. The Victorian electorate is Australia’s most marginal seat. AAP/David Crosling

Ultra-marginal Corangamite is a mirror of the nation

In 2013, the Victorian electorate of Corangamite is a mirror of the nation’s electoral allegiance and social composition. At the 2010 federal election, Labor’s Darren Cheeseman narrowly won on the back…
Dobell MP Craig Thomson has been spending time in a courthouse in addition to Parliament House in recent times. AAP/Lukas Coch

The NSW Central Coast: beautiful one day, Dobell the next

The seats of Dobell and Robertson encompass most of the Central Coast between Sydney and Newcastle and therefore preside over a glistening necklace of beaches and waterways that are among the most beautiful…
The return of Kevin Rudd was aimed at denting the Coalition’s chances in Queensland, however it now appears that Teresa Gambaro will hold on to the marginal seat of Brisbane. AAP/Alan Porritt

Defying the Rudd revival: Brisbane is the real bellwether seat

If any seat is going to indicate whether all the pain that Kevin Rudd put the Labor Party through in regaining the prime ministership was worth it, it will be the inner-city seat of Brisbane. The seat…
Liberal candidate for Greenway Jaymes Diaz has made international headlines for his gaffe-prone campaign - but he may yet wrest the seat from Labor. Channel 10

Greenway, or the place which Jaymes Diaz is trying to represent

The ultra-marginal seat of Greenway in Sydney’s western suburbs has recently drawn international scrutiny after the embarrassing media performance of the Liberal candidate Jaymes Diaz, who faltered when…
Boothby MP Andrew Southcott will likely ride the wave of a national swing towards to the Liberals to return him to parliament in the Coalition’s most marginal electorate. AAP/Alan Porritt

Boothby not yet a likely proposition for Labor

Boothby, the most marginal Liberal-held seat in this election, is a demographically solid part of middle-class Australia. Held by the Liberal Party since 1949, it is only since 2004 that Boothby has slipped…
After winning it in 2010, Labor MP Rob Mitchell is looking to hang on to his Victorian seat of McEwen despite an expected swing against the ALP. AAP/Alan Porritt

Redistributions will make McEwen a safer Labor prospect

The Victorian federal electorate of McEwen was a hard seat for Labor to win during the Howard years thanks to the popularity of the then-incumbent Liberal MP, Fran Bailey. But this year, due to major changes…
Former speaker Peter Slipper is virtually no chance to retain his Queensland seat of Fisher after a highly controversial last term in office. AAP/Dave Hunt

The ghost of Peter Slipper will still haunt Fisher

A number of seats in Queensland may go a long way to deciding the outcome of the federal election. However, it is doubtful that the seat of Fisher, located in the southern part of the Sunshine Coast, will…
Coalition frontbencher Sophie Mirabella has an unexpected fight on her hands is to retain her rural Victorian electorate of Indi. AAP/Lukas Coch

Indi and the politics of personality

The federal Victorian seat of Indi covers a major part of Victoria’s northeast. The Hume Highway and the Melbourne-to-Sydney railway run through the electorate’s demographic centre and at various points…
Alannah MacTiernan has been preselected for the ALP in the seat of Perth - one of the few the party hold in WA - to replace retiring defence minister Stephen Smith. AAP/Rebecca Le May

Chalk the seat of Perth up to a likely Labor win

The federal seat of Perth is one of only three federal electorates currently held by Labor in Western Australia. Retaining this seat is critical if Labor is to avoid complete oblivion in the west. The…
Liberal candidate Andrew Nikolic looks likely to claim the Tasmanian seat of Bass from sitting Labor MP Geoff Lyons. AAP/Alan Porritt

Put Bass down as a Coalition win

If the early polls were accurate, Bass was already lost for Labor’s Geoff Lyons, the sitting member, but recent gaffes by Lyons will probably make that certain. Lyons has been left with egg on his face…
Labor MP Bernie Ripoll is expected to be returned in the Queensland seat of Oxley in September unless a seismic shift against the ALP in the state. AAP/Alan Porritt

A loss in Oxley could spell disaster for Labor

The fate of the federal Queensland seat of Oxley in the 2013 election will provide some clues to the Labor Party’s long term future. If Labor loses Oxley, it is in serious trouble. The seat includes traditional…
Deputy prime minister Anthony Albanese will likely hold off a push from the Greens to claim his inner city Sydney seat of Grayndler. AAP/Paul Miller

Grayndler out of the mix for the Greens

The ALP is set to retain deputy prime minister Anthony Albanese’s seat of Grayndler following the Liberal Party’s decision to preference Labor over the Greens in the 2013 election. While the Greens made…
Retiring Labor MP Simon Crean has survived factional feuding and demographic changes in his seat Hotham. AAP/David Crosling

The Labor times are changing in Hotham

In the shadow of Monash University’s Clayton campus landmark Menzies Building to its north and with the affluent bayside Melbourne suburbs to its south and west lie the flat lands of the federal seat of…
WA Nationals MP Tony Crook is not running for re-election in September. Who will succeed in the ‘friendly’ battle for O'Connor? AAP/Penny Bradfield

‘Friendly’ rivalry in O’Connor: can the Nationals win again?

The Western Australian seat of O’Connor provides a fascinating battle between the Liberal and National parties that reflects a struggle to win the hearts and minds – and votes – of regional Western Australians…
Andrew Wilkie will have to fight off challengers from the ALP, Coalition and the Greens to retain his seat of Denison. AAP/Alan Porritt

Victory in Denison: a Shakespearean question?

To Wilkie, or not to Wilkie? That is the question confronting the electors in the Tasmanian seat of Denison on September 7. The last three years It’s been a long time since former prime minister Julia…
Liberal MP Ken Wyatt became the first Indigenous member of the lower house in 2010 in the WA seat of Hasluck. Will he be returned this time? AAP/Alan Porritt

Can Ken Wyatt hold on to Hasluck?

The outer suburban Western Australian seat of Hasluck moved centre stage during the last federal election for two reasons. First, the tight result meant that it was not decided until late in the count…
Indigenous health minister Warren Snowdon ought to be concerned about the growing disillusionment towards the ALP of Aborigines in his Lingiari electorate. AAP/Dean Lewins

Lingiari: unique, but still a mirror of the broader contest?

Recently, Lingiari MP and Minister for Indigenous Health and Veterans’ Affairs Warren Snowdon made a big fuss in the local NT media about a A$4,500 grant for a new stove for the ailing RSL club in Alice…
Sitting Labor MP David Bradbury is running for re-election for the seat of Lindsay. AAP Image/Alan Porritt

No easy way to Lindsay

The seat of Lindsay represents some of Sydney’s outer western suburbs. It has occupied its own special place in the Australian psyche, long before the leaflet scandal in the last days of John Howard’s…
Bandt AAP Image Julian Smith.

Reassessing Melbourne three years on

Kevin Rudd’s restoration to the ALP leadership may yet be an electoral game-changer as the polling day of September 7 fast approaches. Recent opinion polling suggests Labor’s primary vote has returned…

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