‘Shy Tories’ doesn’t cut it. There is another anomaly in the election poll data which offers a more useful angle on what went wrong.
Academic rigour, journalistic flair
Articles on Polls
Displaying 161 - 171 of 171 articles
While pre-election polls got their sums wrong, and seemed to ignore biases in the rush to publish, a far more accurate call was being made in the betting shops of Britain.
Britain’s first-past-the-post system is often defended on the grounds that it enables voters to choose between alternative governments. Two qualities supposedly give it this character. First, it gives…
Foundation essay: This article is part of a series marking the launch of The Conversation in the US. Our foundation essays are longer than our usual comment and analysis articles and take a wider look…
The Scottish independence referendum campaign has now been raging for 18 months, ever since the Yes Scotland (pro-independence) and Better Together (anti-independence) umbrella organisations were launched…
The publicly available opinion polls are in agreement about the fate of the Labor government. A landslide defeat in the House of Representatives is looming, the magnitude of which might place Julia Gillard…
With eight days until the US presidential election, Mitt Romney seems to have a very slight edge in the national polls. However, every respectable poll aggregator, along with all the betting and futures…
Mitt Romney’s victory in the first presidential debate has given his campaign a much-needed lift with four weeks remaining until the election. But can the strength of Romney’s debate performance really…
It is about five weeks before the election and, overall, President Obama seems to hold a small but steady margin over Mitt Romney. However, predictions regarding the popular vote are not as important as…
Australia is currently unsustainable in many respects. Change is coming. Will that change be wisely managed? Or will it be forced upon us in potentially catastrophic ways? Wise management will require…
Kevin Rudd’s presence as Foreign Minister has been a constant reminder that Julia Gillard’s ascension to Prime Minister was never fully accepted in the electorate, a perception confirmed by the 2010 election…
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Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
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Professor of Economics and Finance. Director of the Betting Research Unit and the Political Forecasting Unit at Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University
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Professor of Politics, University of Strathclyde and Senior Research Fellow, National Centre for Social Research, National Centre for Social Research
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Research Professor at the Center for Political Studies, University of Michigan
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Professor, Department of Government, University of Essex
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Senior Lecturer, School of Political and Social Inquiry, Monash University
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Professor of Sociology, University of California, Irvine
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PhD Candidate, The University of Western Australia
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Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra
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Professor of Geography, University of Bristol
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Senior Lecturer in Quantitative Social Science and Director of the Sheffield Q-Step Centre (The University of Sheffield); Statistical Ambassador (Royal Statistical Society), University of Sheffield
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Adjunct Research Fellow; Journalist, University of Notre Dame Australia
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Associate Professor in American Politics and Foreign Policy, US Studies Centre, University of Sydney
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Professor of Political Science, LaGrange College
