Articles on Reserve Bank of Australia

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The superheated Sydney housing market has regulators, and the Reserve Bank, worried. Joel Carrett/AAP

Rates and housing risk: beware outsourcing policy to regulators

With rates on the way down the problem of runaway property investing has been left to the regulator APRA. But regulators should not be used as agents of short-term government policy.
Australia’s rates should rise in the next six to 12 months, says the Shadow Reserve Bank. AAP Image/Dan Himbrechts

Still no clear direction for economy: RBA should hold

Economic data is giving a mixed picture on whether the Reserve Bank should cut rates, but on balance, RBA members should hold.
Uncertainty around Greece defaulting on debt repayments continues to dominate the global outlook. AAP/EPA/Aexandros Vlachos

Financial markets expect a cut, but RBA Shadow Board says hold

Financial markets have factored in a cut to Australia's cash rate, but economists - including the CAMA Shadow Board - aren't so sure.
The Shadow RBA Board recommends what the RBA should do, not predicts what it will do. Image sourced from www.shutterstock.com

The RBA cut rates, we said it shouldn’t. Here’s why.

I am a member of the “Shadow” RBA Board, which is made up of a collection of industry and academic economists. Just before every meeting of the real-world RBA Board, we announce our recommendations for…
Reserve Bank Governor Glenn Stevens has helped Treasurer Joe Hockey make his case for boosting the economy, but will it be enough? Alan Porritt/AAP

How to multiply the rate cut impact and unshackle the economy

This week’s Reserve Bank interest rate move surprised virtually everyone, bringing the cash rate to 2.25%, yet another historic low. Despite Australian Treasurer Joe Hockey suggesting the rate cut means…
The less surprised markets are on interest rate moves the better. Paul Miller/AAP

Quelle surprise? Why it’s good for markets to second-guess the RBA

Though markets had somewhat priced in an Australian interest rate cut yesterday, many analysts and commentators were still left surprised. The rate had not been cut for 18 months. Over that period commentary…
The drop in oil prices, and consequently fuel costs, is driving down inflation and helping the Australian economy. Andy Rain/EPA/AAP

Interest rates decision could boil down to oil: RBA Shadow Board

The CAMA RBA Shadow Board is a project by the Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, based at the ANU, which asks industry and academic economists what interest rate the Reserve Bank of Australia should…
Puzzled by movements in the Aussie dollar? You’re not alone. Image sourced from Shutterstock.com

Obsessed with the dollar? What to expect from the Aussie in 2015

The Australian dollar is a curious currency. It is the fifth most traded in the world and it gyrates pretty wildly – having traded below 48 US cents and above 110 in the decade or so from mid 2001 to 2011…
Dealing with housing bubbles can get messy for central banks. Shutterstock

Home loan limits and buffers won’t stop a housing bubble

Australia’s central bank has formally flagged the use of macroprudential tools to address what it called “unbalanced” lending in its most recent Financial Stability Review. Loan-to-valuation ratio (LVR…
RBA Governor Glenn Stevens has cited an increase in labour productivity - but all isn’t as it appears. AAP/Dan Peled

Labour productivity has risen – but it’s not exactly a good news story

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens has ticked off on a major item on the “to do” list for Australian policy-makers: raise the rate of growth in labour productivity. In his keynote speech…
Rates should stay steady for now, say CAMA economists. Dan Peled/AAP

Call likely to grow louder for interest rates to rise

The CAMA RBA Shadow Board is a project by the Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, based at the ANU, which asks industry and academic economists what interest rate the Reserve Bank of Australia should…
Consumer sentiment has fallen since the federal budget while other indicators suggest the economy is in limbo. AAP/Dan Himbrechts

Rates should hold until post-budget malaise clears

The CAMA RBA Shadow Board is a project by the Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, based at the ANU, which asks industry and academic economists what interest rate the Reserve Bank of Australia should…
Business has agitated for change, but is now wary of the negative impact of a tough budget.

The state of Australia: business

In the lead up to the budget, the story of crisis has been hammered home, but there’s more to a country than its structural deficit. So how is Australia doing overall? In this special series, ten writers…
Australia’s economy is showing promising signs, with global events the main source of concern. AAP

Promise on the horizon for Australian economy

The Australian economy appears to be benefiting from the current expansionary stance in monetary policy, despite uncertainties in the global economy. The CAMA Shadow Board is 71% confident that the cash…
The Bank of England’s latest communication strategy has been dubbed “fuzzy guidance” - but how much should central banks reveal? Image sourced from www.shutterstock.com

Forward or fuzzy: just how much should central banks reveal?

The effective death of the forward guidance strategy offered by the Bank of England came with the announcement in early February that there would be a switch to a less quantitative approach. Dubbed by…
Last year’s G-20 knees up. This year expect the taper, the IMF and corporate tax evasion to be the main themes. Flickr

We are all spillovers now: G20 finance meeting explained

Finance ministers and central bank governors from the Group of 20 major economies will meet in Sydney this week. A lot of troubled financial waters have flowed under the bridge since this group last met…
Despite a topsy turvy global economy, inflation has remained stable in Australia. zanoskim/Flickr

Inflation - the dog that didn’t bark

Australia’s cost of living is among the highest in the world, despite our low inflation rate. In this series we explore what consumers can expect from the big ticket items - petrol, power and groceries…

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