The Conversation’s expert panel expects the Reserve Bank to cut interest rates two to three times over the next 18 months, with the first cut likely in March.
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Artículos sobre Reserve Bank of Australia
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The newer, more frequent monthly measure of inflation is moving further away from the Reserve Bank’s target band.
Living standards have fallen for the fifth successive quarter, the longest decline in 40 years.
Only one-third of the top economists surveyed give Jim Chalmers’ third budget an A or a B, down from two-thirds in 2023. Many say it left big issues unaddressed.
Australia’s economy is already alarmingly weak. A big cut in government spending in next week’s budget could push us from a per capita recession into an actual recession.
Every time the Reserve Bank has pushed up interest rates in order to take money out of the system, it’s also been putting money in, in a way it didn’t use to.
The treasurer says the 2024 budget will be about supporting growth after the weakest economic figures in 23 years outside of a recession.
The Conversation’s expert panel expects inflation to continue to fall, but more gradually, and it expects the RBA to be slow in responding. Unemployment should climb and economic growth weaken.
On one measure the latest inflation rate is just 3.4%, within spitting distance of the Reserve Bank’s 2–3% target.
Per person, we’re spending less this year – even on this year’s much hyped Black Friday sales. If that continues over summer and inflation stays low, a rate hike in February 2024 looks unlikely.
Up until December 9 1983, officials used to announce each morning how much the dollar was worth. Even bankers were shocked about letting the market set the price – but it’s served Australia well.
Average prices fell in October, driven down by dives in the price of petrol and overseas travel, and an increase in Commonwealth Rent assistance.
Sure, a good many of us don’t trust politicians – but surely politicians ought to trust politicians. History shows why they might one day need to overturn a Reserve Bank decision.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers has made the first ever Reserve Bank appointment from outside the country as part of an effort to fight ‘groupthink’.
Australian financial markets are now pointing to a close to zero chance of further rate rises – with a fair chance of a rate cut next year. That’s thanks to the latest news from the US and UK.
It’ll now be a frugal Christmas in many Australian homes. But there is a glimmer of good news: if we do tighten our belts, rates could start to come down by as early as the middle of next year.
In this podcast, independent economist Chris Richardson joins The Conversation to discuss a rate rise, "sticky" inflation, the fall in the standard of living, and a bleak prospect as we go into 2024.
The governor’s remarks about the board “not hesitating” to raise rates further aren’t as clear cut as they seem.
Petrol prices have pushed inflation up. At its next meeting, the Reserve Bank board is going to have to decide if that warrants an increase in interest rates.
30 years ago, Labor Prime Minister Paul Keating adopted an ambitious official target for Australian unemployment. The Albanese government just passed up a historic opportunity to go even further.
Principales colaboradores
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Visiting Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University
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Professor of Economics, UNSW Sydney
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Senior Lecturer, Canberra School of Politics, Economics and Society, University of Canberra
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Lecturer in Economics, Monash University
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Professor, Warwick Business School, University of Warwick
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Senior Lecturer, Research School of Economics, and Research Associate, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Australian National University
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Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra
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Visiting Fellow, Macquarie University Applied Finance Centre, Macquarie University
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Associate Professor, School of Economics, University of Sydney
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Vice-Chancellor’s Fellow, University of Tasmania
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Professor of Economics and Finance, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics, University of Tasmania
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Professor of Institutional Economics, RMIT University
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Higher Education Consultant, Monash University
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Economist and Director, Centre for Future Work, Australia Institute; Honorary Professor of Political Economy, University of Sydney
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Honorary Professor of Economics, UCL
