National’s tax policies have been tweaked since the election, thanks to coalition agreements with NZ First and ACT. But the plan for tax cuts seems to have survived, to the benefit of core supporters.
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The coalition has made good on pledges to repeal, reduce or reverse the previous government’s policies. But the real test will be paying for its own policies and staying stable in the process.
Rather than leave the Treaty principles to parliament and the courts to define, why not embed the essence of the Treaty articles themselves in all laws?
The ACT Party’s Regulatory Standards Bill will likely meet the same opposition it has in the past. And it will be a test of the new government’s commitment to genuine regulatory standards.
History suggests the new NZ government’s pledge to cut budgets and jobs in the public sector will cost more in the long run – and damage morale in the process.
Labour’s 2021 property tax changes were meant to lower the cost of housing. But without a proper capital gains tax it only hurt investors and renters, and made the tax system overall less coherent.
The country’s first formal three-party coalition will test Christopher Luxon’s promise of ‘strong and stable’ government – and the minor parties’ patience if things don’t go their way.
While Māori have seen a steady increase in representation in parliament since the beginning of MMP, other ethnic minorities have experienced uneven growth. The new parliament will see a step back.
National and ACT will need to get past their animosity towards NZ First, and its mercurial leader Winston Peters, if the right wing coalition is to have any hope of forming a government.
Ahead of Friday’s final election results, the most likely outcome is National and ACT will need to add NZ First to form a right-wing coalition government. These are the results and seats to watch.
The final outcome of the general election may not be known for two weeks. But one thing is clear: the country has resoundingly rejected the government that led it through the pandemic.
With final results awaiting the inclusion of special votes, the shape of New Zealand’s next parliament hangs in the balance. Here are the variables in play.
New Zealand has swung decisively back to the right at the 2023 general election. With official results pending, it seems National and ACT can still form a government without the help of NZ First.
With two days of the campaign left, what had earlier seemed like a relatively predictable election has narrowed considerably, with several variables potentially influencing the outcome.
The final days of the campaign have seen both major parties warn of instability if the other wins. But behind the jockeying for power, other forces are shaping the future of New Zealand politics.
Farmers once held immense power in New Zealand, and the National Party was their natural home. But the old order has been under threat for some time, with this election making the fault lines clear.
A shift towards more punitive responses to youth crime by the next government could reverse the progress New Zealand has made in reducing offending and addressing its root causes.
Under the new Natural and Built Environments Act, it will take ten years to phase out the old Resource Management Act. Parties promising reform will likely end up presiding over the status quo.
New Zealand’s proportional electoral system makes coalition governments all but inevitable. Ahead of the October 14 election, the jockeying for power is all on the right.
The Conversation’s poll-watcher breaks down the party support trend since March – which has all been surging one way, despite some variation between pollsters.
Les contributeurs les plus fréquents
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Professor of Politics, Massey University
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Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
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Professor of Political Science, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington
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Visiting Scholar in Politics, City, University of London
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Adjunct Professor, Faculty of Health and Environmental Sciences, Auckland University of Technology, and Professor of Political Science, Charles Sturt University
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Professor of Politics and Policy, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau
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Associate Professor and Head of the Department of Public Health, Auckland University of Technology
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Professor of Law, University of Waikato
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Professor of Politics, University of Canterbury
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Professor of Race Relations, Health and Wellbeing, Massey University
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Associate professor, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington
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Professor of Communication Design, Massey University
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Senior Lecturer in Politics, University of Canterbury
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Postdoctoral fellow, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington
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Research Associate, Public Policy Institute, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau
