Polling is an imperfect attempt at providing insight and explanation. But the public’s desire for insight and explanation about elections never ends, so polls endure despite their flaws and failures.
Polling shows Joe Biden with a large lead over Donald Trump nationally in the presidential race. But there are many ways that presidential race polling has gone wrong in the past, and could do so now.
In 2016, America’s adversaries seemed to cheer electoral chaos and a withering faith in democracy. Now they seem to be hoping democracy can topple a leader they’ve grown loathe to deal with.
Will Facebook and Twitter be able to counter the tsunami of misinformation that could affect the election result? It’s unlikely.
Presidential pollsters in the US have had some embarrassing failures. Here’s a catalog of those miscalls, from the scholar who literally wrote the book on them.
How Joe Biden’s Facebook campaign compares to Hillary Clinton’s at this point in 2016 – and how Donald Trump is doing on the social media platform.
The closer to the election you can drop a bombshell, the better, right? Not necessarily.
Russian interference deeply marked the 2016 American presidential election. Four years later, let’s analyze the form and impact of disinformation coming from Russia.
A politician who wields a comeback with skill can use it as both a bludgeon and a shield, damaging the opponent without hurting their own popularity with voters.
Barbara Sherwood Lollar, University of Toronto; Bryan Gaensler, University of Toronto; Dominique Weis, University of British Columbia; Gretchen Harris, University of Waterloo; Jeremy McNeil, Western University; Lesley A. Warren, University of Toronto; Molly Shoichet, University of Toronto; Peter G Martin, University of Toronto; Sheldon Levy, Toronto Metropolitan University, and William Harris, McMaster University
Women in visible leadership positions are subject to personal attacks as less competent and reliable than their male colleagues. Acknowledging this double standard is the first step in addressing it.
There was a time when well-known journalists resented preelection polls and didn’t mind saying so. One even said he felt “secret glee and relief when the polls go wrong.” Why did they feel this way?
Why are women and people of colour under-represented in politics? Part of the problem is strategic discrimination, or concern about other people’s biases.
The polls are predicting a comfortable win for Joe Biden over Donald Trump. But if this election sees the same polling errors as in 2016, Trump’s chances of re-election are higher than we think.
The technical qualifications for presidential candidates are the same, but how people seek the nation’s highest office has shifted over the centuries.
Political conventions used to pick presidential nominees in private. Now the public picks the nominee and then the party has a big party at the convention, writes a scholar of US elections.
In a new book, Julia Gillard, Hillary Clinton and other high-profile female leaders speak plainly about the challenges women face at the very top of politics.
The real Hillary Rodham Clinton said yes the third time Bill proposed – in Curtis Sittenfeld’s novel, she says no.
Why do some people think that Bernie Sanders isn’t electable and Joe Biden is? Does anyone really know what makes one candidate seem electable while another doesn’t?
Predictions about how a woman presidential candidate might fare in 2020 are largely speculation, writes a political scientist, because there isn’t enough experience to base those predictions on.
Hillary Clinton got the most individual votes from US citizens in 2016, but Donald Trump won the most electoral votes.