A full-blown war between Israel and Hezbollah would likely set the entire region on fire, involving Iran and its proxies, and could drag the US into direct confrontation with Tehran.
Hezbollah’s recent release of drone footage taken inside Israel appears designed to send a message that the armed group can cause serious damage in the event of a full-scale war.
The US is relying more on its alliances in the Middle East in order to pull back a bit. This will likely continue no matter who is in the White House next year.
The brutality of Israel’s assault on Gaza and the failure to secure the release of the October 7 hostages have left the Israeli prime minister with few friends domestically or internationally.
Recognition of Palestinian statehood was previously held out as an incentive to completing peace negotiations. But that’s changed now, and New Zealand should consider changing its position too.
The prosecutor at the International Criminal Court publicized his request for warrants for Israeli and Hamas leaders. Publicly, Canada’s position aligns with Israel and the United States.
Israelis’ and Jewish people’s long-held feeling of persecution, dating back to biblical times, contributes to most Israelis’ desire to continue the war in Gaza.
The Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, is opposed to a two-state solution, but many ordinary Israelis and Palestinians don’t feel the same way.
Senior Associate Fellow on the Middle East at RUSI; Associate Professor in Politics & International Relations; Deputy Director of the Centre on US Politics, UCL