While Māori have seen a steady increase in representation in parliament since the beginning of MMP, other ethnic minorities have experienced uneven growth. The new parliament will see a step back.
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Beneath the obvious policy differences between Labour and National lies a tacit consensus on fundamental economic settings. Until that changes, political choice will be constrained.
The final outcome of the general election may not be known for two weeks. But one thing is clear: the country has resoundingly rejected the government that led it through the pandemic.
With final results awaiting the inclusion of special votes, the shape of New Zealand’s next parliament hangs in the balance. Here are the variables in play.
New Zealand has swung decisively back to the right at the 2023 general election. With official results pending, it seems National and ACT can still form a government without the help of NZ First.
With two days of the campaign left, what had earlier seemed like a relatively predictable election has narrowed considerably, with several variables potentially influencing the outcome.
The final days of the campaign have seen both major parties warn of instability if the other wins. But behind the jockeying for power, other forces are shaping the future of New Zealand politics.
A shift towards more punitive responses to youth crime by the next government could reverse the progress New Zealand has made in reducing offending and addressing its root causes.
The latest political opinion polls confirm the rightward trend since mid-year. But with NZ First on the rise, the shape of the next government remains unpredictable.
The election campaign’s first live TV debate offered a glimpse of the leadership challenge faced by Labour’s Chris Hipkins – to connect with voter’s values and interests, not just their current mood.
New Zealand’s proportional electoral system makes coalition governments all but inevitable. Ahead of the October 14 election, the jockeying for power is all on the right.
The Conversation’s poll-watcher breaks down the party support trend since March – which has all been surging one way, despite some variation between pollsters.
Both major parties are promising to increase payments for families ‘in work’. But the changes will only entrench the problems already faced by beneficiaries and the working poor.
Both major parties are promising major road projects this election. Meanwhile, the potential for passenger and freight rail to help meet the country’s climate goals seems stuck at the station.
All the evidence points to paid partner’s leave having many benefits for children and families – but Labour’s promise falls short on time and money.
A new book about an old political leader asks what New Zealand has lost in the past five decades – and what it might yet regain.
A referendum on changing New Zealand’s parliamentary term to four years would be the third such exercise in under 60 years. Why would the outcome be any different this time?
Thursday’s ‘orthodox no-frills budget’ sounds like Labour is switching from Ecostore to Kmart: never mind your wellbeing, this is about Labour’s political survival.
Jacinda Ardern is officially no longer an MP. But her novel leadership style probably saved the Labour Party from much longer in the political wilderness.
As she prepares to deliver of her valedictory statement to parliament, Jacinda Ardern will be remembered as an outstanding prime minister – though perhaps not for reasons of her own choosing.
Kontributor teratas
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Professor of Politics, Te Kunenga ki Pūrehuroa – Massey University
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Visiting Scholar in Politics, City, University of London
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Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
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Professor of Politics and Policy, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau
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Professor of Political Science, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington
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Director of the Roy McKenzie Centre for the Study of Families and Children, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington
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Professor of Politics, University of Canterbury
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Emeritus Professor of Law, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau
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Honorary Principal Fellow, University of Wollongong
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Senior Lecturer, School of Management, Te Kunenga ki Pūrehuroa – Massey University
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PhD Candidate, Department of Political Science and International Relations, University of Canterbury
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Postgraduate student, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington
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Lecturer, Political Science and International Relations, University of Canterbury
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Senior Lecturer in Politics, University of Canterbury
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Lecturer, Aotahi School of Māori and Indigenous Studies, University of Canterbury
