Recent political polls in New Zealand and elsewhere have consistently failed to reflect eventual outcomes. Voters and pundits alike should avoid reading them too literally.
Academic rigor, journalistic flair
Articles on 2020 NZ elections
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Managing the competing demands of a pandemic inevitably erodes Jacinda Ardern’s political brand – but changes to Labour’s leadership rules don’t necessarily signal the end of an era.
One year on, the NZ Election Survey crunches the numbers on what drove Jacinda Ardern’s unprecedented 2020 victory.
The pandemic delivered a political year like no other. The risk now is that the country returns to a ‘normal’ that wasn’t working to start with.
Jacinda Ardern’s NZ Labour Party scores a resounding election win, while the ACT government is comfortably returned.
This morning the National Party’s new leader of just 53 days, Todd Muller, shocked everyone by resigning his position – ten weeks before facing off against Jacinda Ardern in the NZ election.
National MP Hamish Walker and political powerbroker Michelle Boag have admitted leaking confidential patient information – but does that make them legally liable too?
Jacinda Ardern is at stratospheric support levels due to her government’s management of the COVID-19 crisis. That lead will inevitably narrow by the election – but by how much?
Scott Morrison’s popularity has bounced during the coronavirus pandemic, but that is still not translating to two-party preferred results. Meanwhile, Joe Biden pulls ahead in the US election race.
Ardern’s handling of the COVID-19 crisis has inspired high trust in the state but by the time the country goes to the polls later this year, the outbreak’s social and economic damage may change that.
Top contributors
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Professor of Politics, Massey University
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Professor of Political Science, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington
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Visiting Scholar in Politics, City, University of London
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Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
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Postdoctoral fellow, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington
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Research Associate, Public Policy Institute, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau
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Professor of Politics and Policy, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau
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Professor of Law, University of Waikato
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Associate professor, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington
