The first great power rivalry of the 21st century has begun – and it’s unlike any rivalry the world has ever seen.
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You could compare election opinion polls to penalty shoot-outs at a World Cup final: there’s huge pressure to get it right and we remember the big misses most of all.
Australia needs to rein in the ever-increasing role of private money in federal elections with caps on political advertising and donations.
The Tasmanian seats of Bass and Braddon were always going to be key elements of a Coalition victory – and so it proved to be.
Officially, the number of migrants globally reached 258 million in 2017, increasing by 49% since 2000. But the lack of a clear definition of who is or isn’t a migrant complicates the issue.
Labor’s finance spokesman Jim Chalmers confirmed he is considering standing for leader, which would put him up against leftwinger Anthony Albanese, who is already campaigning hard for the position.
A tense standoff in the world’s most volatile region is not only dangerous, it could have been avoided by the US adhering to an agreement that was far from perfect, but better than the alternative.
Election data suggests the Coalition’s victory wasn’t so surprising after all – long-term trends pointed toward a Labor loss, given the various factors in play in this election.
Observers will lament that Saturday’s result shows it is impossible for an opposition to win with a robust change agenda. It might, however, be the case that just too much was piled into it.
Especially in Queensland, right-wing populist parties like One Nation and United Australia Party had a significant impact on how seats played out, and especially taking votes from Labor.
Labor’s defeat revives a familiar problem in Australian political history: the left’s inability to show how its policies can improve people’s material conditions.
The result in Warringah can be seen as being fought on local issues, where the former prime minister had come to be out of step with his constituents.
The Coalition should not use this unexpected win to allow itself to be complacent and drift. It needs to work out its agenda for the next three years and how it allows internal debate.
We now wait for the final count of seats in the House of Representatives and the Senate - and in the meantime, government continues.
The outcome is completely opposite to the polls, which all had Labor ahead going into the election, albeit narrowly and with some tightening during the campaign.
This result, which is vastly different from what opinion polls were indicating, shows the probability of “herding” in polls, and also emphasises that betting odds are to be treated with great caution.
How did the numbers of election 2019 fall across the country? And what seats are still in play?
What if Bob Hawke, hailed as a leader who actually ‘got’ environmental issues, had never been rolled by Paul Keating? Perhaps the climate policy wars would have turned out differently.
How much does your socio-demographic background such as income, type of work and where you were born affect who you vote for? Quite a lot.
No present leader touches Hawke for charisma, popularity or communications skills, even leaving aside the larrikin history.
GetUp has notched many political victories since launching in 2005. Now, independents and conservatives are trying to replicate its approach to grassroots political participation.
Leigh Sullivan speaks to Michelle Grattan about the week in politics.
After five long weeks, the campaign is drawing to a close, with the polls still pointing to a narrow Labor win, with lots of unknowns in the detail.
Most of all, Hawke will be remembered as a reformer — presiding over a set of economic reforms that modernised the Australian economy.
Yes, most jobseekers who receive Newstart payments are also eligible for other benefits. But in many cases this is just a few dollars a fortnight to help with expenses such as electricity bills.