While polls have been patchy for some years, analysis shows they have been particularly out of whack since Morrison became prime minister.
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The election is complicated by the apparent lumpiness of the vote, with seats expected to change hands in both directions.
While Ipsos on Newspoll are telling different stories about leaders' approval ratings, both are still showing a likely victory for Labor at the federal election.
On primary votes, the ALP dropped a point to 36%, while the Coalition was static on 38%, from the last Newspoll a week ago.
The latest Newspoll shows a further tightening on two-party preferred, but was making some strange assumptions about the slow of preferences.
Neither party got a bump from the official start of the federal election campaign, with Labor retaining its 52-48 advantage in the latest Newspoll.
The Newspoll, in Monday's Australian, shows signs of the vote polarising as the campaign formally starts for the May 18 election.
As Morrison readies to call the election, with speculation he will announce next weekend for May 18, he has also increased his lead over Shorten as better prime minister in Newspoll.
Weak economic data and sluggish wages have contributed to the Coalition's poor showing in the latest Newspoll, which gives Labor a 54-46 lead on two-party preferred.
The worsening Coalition performance comes after last week's sluggish economic figures and amid
more bickering on the conservative side of politics, including pot shots from Malcolm Turnbull.
Despite a week of heated debate over the medevac legilation, the latest polls continue to show Labor with an election-winning lead.
The latest polls show Labor holding a solid lead over the Coalition, while seat polls show that Tony Abbott may struggle to retain his Sydney seat.
The latest Fairfax-Ipsos and Essential polls give a strong lead to Labor, with some interesting – and variable - detail on the attributes voters see in the leaders of the two major parties.
The final results post-election Victorian upper house are not a ringing endorsement for democracy - and provide a strong case for reform.
And for the first time since the 1999 republic referendum, those opposed to a republic outnumber those in favour of it.
The Newspolls have been consistently worse for the Coalition since the
leadership change – before that Labor had been cut back to a narrow 51-49% lead.
In the aftermath of the Wentworth byelection, the Coalition government has suffered another set-back in the polls.
The latest polls are a mixed bag for the Morrison government: there were gains in primary and two-party preferred vote, but the polls still have Labor in an election-winning position.
The Morrison and Berejiklian governments might be of the same stripe but, with both facing elections in the first half of 2019, their interests rub up against each other uncomfortably.
Policymaking is no longer based solely on what a party stands for. Now, it also matters how a decision is going to play in the opinion polls – and that's a problem for our political system.
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Top contributors
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Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra
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Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Melbourne
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Vice-Chancellor and President, University of Canberra
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Professor of Politics. Dean (Engagement) Griffith Business School, Griffith University
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Emeritus professor, Southern Cross University
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Professor, School of Government and International Relations, Griffith University
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Senior Lecturer of Australian Politics, Murdoch University
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Professor of Communication, University of Newcastle
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Senior Lecturer in Clinical Ethics and Health Law, University of Newcastle
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Tony Walker is a Friend of The Conversation.
Adjunct Professor, School of Communications, La Trobe University
