# Articles sur Probability

## Can the Big Bash League’s backyard cricket bat flip truly be fair?

Whether it's a toss of the coin or a flip of the bat, can any method to decide who plays first in cricket be unbiased?

## Innovation decoherence

The study of innovation in large companies and start-ups would benefit from being inspired by physics, which mobilizes different sets of laws for large masses and particles.

## McDonald’s Monopoly: A statistician explains the real odds of winning

McDonald's Canada has brought back its popular Monopoly game. A statistician explains the odds of winning the top prizes and how that compares to the odds we confront in everyday life.

## We’ve crunched the numbers in McDonald’s Monopoly challenge to find your chance of winning

With some big prizes are on offer in the latest competition from the fast food giant, best to see what the numbers say.

## How to cheat at dice – from an expert in games

Cheating at dice games is possible – but it does require some skills.

## What are the odds of Trump surviving 2018 in office? An expert crunches the numbers

Never mind three more years – some people think just one might be a tall order.

## New statistical methods would let researchers deal with data in better, more robust ways

Any field that collects and analyzes data relies on statistical techniques to make sense of it all. Modern, more accurate methods should supplant the old ways... but in many cases, they haven't yet.

## Bayes’ Theorem: the maths tool we probably use every day, but what is it?

The decisions we make in life often come down to Bayes' Theorem, but most of us don't even realise what it is. So how does it work?

## Worried about shark attacks or terrorism? Here’s how to think about the real risk of rare events

We naturally overestimate the risk of rare events, like shark attacks or terrorism. But there are things you can do to think more rationally about the real risk.

## Momentum isn’t magic – vindicating the hot hand with the mathematics of streaks

For 30 years, sports fans have been told to forget about streaks because the 'hot hand' is a fallacy. But a reanalysis says not so fast: Statistics show players really are in the zone sometimes.

## Regression to the mean, or why perfection rarely lasts

Things tend to revert back to their typical state over time, so we should be careful not to mistake that for some other trend.

## Here’s the best way to shuffle a pack of cards – with a little help from some maths

When is a pack of cards truly random?

## Why football bets are far more profitable to bookmakers than gambling machines

Fixed odds betting terminals attract all the attention, but something alarming is being overlooked.

## Reports of the death of polling have been greatly exaggerated

People around the world were shocked when Hillary Clinton, ahead in many polls, didn't end up the U.S.' president-elect. But that doesn't mean the polls themselves were wrong.

## Gambling on limited information: our visual system and probabilistic inference

How does your brain deal with the ambiguous and variable visual information your eyes collect? Neuroscientists think it bets on what's the most likely version of reality.

## Pi pops up where you don’t expect it

We know pi appears when we talk about circles. But it appears in many other places, too. Why, pi, why?

## Has winning the lottery jackpot become too difficult?

A mathematician looks at the odds.

## How a simple observation from the 1800s about patterns in big data sets can fight fraud

The first digits of numbers in a data set aren't distributed equally. And now you know more than a lot of fraudsters do – and should – when they're making up their phony numbers.

## The promise and perils of predictive policing based on big data

Preventing crime before it happens, while saving resources, sounds like a great use of big data. But these calculated probabilities raise big questions about civil liberties.

## Can math solve the congressional districting problem?

The gerrymandered district has been part of the US political landscape for two centuries. Impartial math suggests several methods for drawing fair, competitive congressional districts.