Liam Collins, United States Military Academy West Point
The ongoing war in Ukraine has forced the Russian military to reassess its ability to defend its territorial gains. The flooding of the Dnieper River gives the Russians a natural defense.
If the African delegation could convince the belligerents to find a peaceful solution, they will make a critical contribution to the climate for mediation.
The infighting is dangerous for the Kremlin. It’s becoming harder for Vladimir Putin to dissociate himself from serious errors of judgement on the battlefield in Ukraine.
Digital evidence is becoming a routine fixture for war crimes investigations, including the one focused on Ukraine, changing the landscape for international tribunal investigations.
The International Criminal Court announced an arrest warrant for Putin and his children’s rights commissioner in March 2023, alleging the illegal abduction and deportation of Ukrainian children.
It’s absolutely critical for Ukraine that its counteroffensive succeeds. If it doesn’t, the international coalition that has kept Ukraine in the fight may well come to favour a negotiated settlement.