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Analysis and Comment (17)

Pressure for a rates hike is increasing. Pressure for a rates hike is increasing. AAP Image/Jane Dempster

End of low rates in sight as case for interest rate hike strengthens

The CAMA RBA Shadow Board is a project by the Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, based at the ANU, which asks industry and academic economists what interest rate the Reserve Bank of Australia should…
Rates should stay steady for now, say CAMA economists. Rates should stay steady for now, say CAMA economists. Dan Peled/AAP

Call likely to grow louder for interest rates to rise

The CAMA RBA Shadow Board is a project by the Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, based at the ANU, which asks industry and academic economists what interest rate the Reserve Bank of Australia should…
Australians should step away from a “story-telling approach” when it comes the economy. Australians should step away from a “story-telling approach” when it comes the economy. AAP/Garry Schafer

Look at the data to understand the risks for the Australian economy

What are the risks in the economic outlook for Australia? Typically, prognosticators take a scenario-based (aka “story-telling”) approach to answering this sort of question. And usually these scenarios…
Australia’s economy is showing promising signs, with global events the main source of concern. Australia’s economy is showing promising signs, with global events the main source of concern. AAP

Promise on the horizon for Australian economy

The Australian economy appears to be benefiting from the current expansionary stance in monetary policy, despite uncertainties in the global economy. The CAMA Shadow Board is 71% confident that the cash…
Australia’s economic position remains uncertain, which may prompt the Reserve Bank to hold interest rates. Australia’s economic position remains uncertain, which may prompt the Reserve Bank to hold interest rates. AAP

Waiting game on economy means RBA should hold

Without a clear direction of where the Australian economy is heading, the consensus to keep the cash rate at its current level of 2.5% remains strong. Uncertainties surrounding the domestic and foreign…
Food prices are likely to rise in line with inflation, but taxes and natural disasters could also have an impact. Food prices are likely to rise in line with inflation, but taxes and natural disasters could also have an impact. Melanie Foster/AAP

Eating healthy? What’s in store for food prices in the year ahead

Australia’s cost of living is among the highest in the world, despite our low inflation rate. In this series we explore what consumers can expect from the big ticket items - petrol, power and groceries…
Despite a topsy turvy global economy, inflation has remained stable in Australia. Despite a topsy turvy global economy, inflation has remained stable in Australia. zanoskim/Flickr

Inflation - the dog that didn’t bark

Australia’s cost of living is among the highest in the world, despite our low inflation rate. In this series we explore what consumers can expect from the big ticket items - petrol, power and groceries…
Buying power doesn’t always stack up as the best measurement for who we are and how far we’ve come. Buying power doesn’t always stack up as the best measurement for who we are and how far we’ve come. Shutterstock/ MaleWitch

More pie in the sky - economic progress no slice of life

In the verbal volley between Gillard and Abbott, Swan and Hockey, there is a conversation that we are not hearing. It bubbles below the consciousness of mainstream Australia, a conversation that is old…
Shinzo Abe is determined to resuscitate Japan’s flagging economy by targeting a 2% rate of inflation and promoting private investment. But will it work? Shinzo Abe is determined to resuscitate Japan’s flagging economy by targeting a 2% rate of inflation and promoting private investment. But will it work? AAP

‘Abenomics’: a fix for Japan’s ailing economy and a boost for Australia

The Japanese economy has been stuck in a liquidity trap for almost a decade. Japan’s newly elected Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who is now in his second stint in office, wants to take radical steps to retrieve…
The US Federal Reserve has made explicit the economic targets it wants to reach through its monetary policy. The US Federal Reserve has made explicit the economic targets it wants to reach through its monetary policy. AAP

US Fed stimulus names its targets in new policy direction

The announcement by the US Federal Reserve Bank that it would link its monetary policy to the achievement of specific economic targets beyond inflation is a new development in its approach to policy. In…
There are as many compelling reasons for the Reserve Bank to cut interest rates as there are to leave them unchanged. There are as many compelling reasons for the Reserve Bank to cut interest rates as there are to leave them unchanged. AAP

RBA should hold steady on interest rates — but when should it cut?

Predicting the Reserve Bank’s interest rate decision for October appears to be particularly tough for economic commentators. A decline in iron ore prices, compounded with a stubbornly high dollar, has…
The Australian dollar has dropped to its lowest level in six months amid continuing global uncertainty: but does it remain over-valued? The Australian dollar has dropped to its lowest level in six months amid continuing global uncertainty: but does it remain over-valued? AAP

Australian dollar continues to drop; but is there more to come?

The Australian dollar has dropped to a six month low on continuing fears over a Greek exit from the Eurozone, despite pleas from European Union leaders. Head of discipline, Economics and Winthrop Professor…
The G8’s communique embracing employment following the weekend’s meeting alters a 30 year focus on inflation.. The G8’s communique embracing employment following the weekend’s meeting alters a 30 year focus on inflation.. AAP/White House

The G8’s cautious new direction away from an old enemy

The G8 leaders' cautious embrace of “growth and jobs” on the weekend has momentarily buoyed international markets, but significantly, altered a 30-year focus on inflation. For more than three decades…
Political, rather than economic: economists say there is no direct link to surpluses and lower interest rates. Political, rather than economic: economists say there is no direct link to surpluses and lower interest rates. AAP

Can surpluses lead to lower interest rates?

The Federal Government is continuing its pre-budget surplus sell, with Prime Minister Julia Gillard directly linking its plans to return the budget to surplus to lower interest rates. Gillard will use…
A slowdown in China’s economy is not yet cause for concern in Australia. A slowdown in China’s economy is not yet cause for concern in Australia. AAP

Will Australia’s economy roar in the Year of the Dragon?

These days, most economic commentators in Australia sing from the same hymn sheet when it comes to discussing our economic prospects: while the ongoing gloom in the US and the outright deterioration in…
When it comes to bananas, demand outstrips supply. But it won’t mean an interest rate rise. When it comes to bananas, demand outstrips supply. But it won’t mean an interest rate rise. AAP

Inflation stokes rate rise speculation but don’t blame the bananas

Renewed speculation of an interest rate rise this year has come out of a surprise surge in Australia’s underlying inflation figures. But don’t blame it on the price of bananas, says Grattan Institute economist…
Interventionist or free market - just where do our economists sit? Interventionist or free market - just where do our economists sit? Flickr/Daquella Manera

What our economists really think about politics

A funny thing happened on the way to this year’s Australian Conference of Economists. A survey was conducted of the policy opinions of members of the Economic Society of Australia (ESA). Far from conforming…

Research and News (4)