The forecast for Australia’s economic growth in 2019-20 has been cut by 0.25%, and the projected surplus for this financial year slashed by A$2.1 billion.
Politics with Michelle Grattan: Mathias Cormann and Jim Chalmers on the mid-year budget update.
The Conversation, CC BY 29.7 MB (download)
The figures indicate a worsening economy, but the government has sought to put a positive spin on the situation, saying the Australian economy is showing resilience.
The update has slashed growth and surplus forecasts, as the economy is buffeted by global and domestic pressures.
The projected surplus has been revised down from A$7.1 billion at budget time to $5 billion for this financial year.
Albanese describes Australia as presently in a ‘productivity recession’.
In his second "vision statement" Albanese says he wants to pursue his “productivity project”, and paints himself as a fiscal conservative well removed from Bill Shorten's tax and spend approach.
Projections are often be repeatedly wrong. That’s because the models don’t learn from mistakes.
From wage growth to renewable energy to religion, projections are being treated as predictions. We'd be better off insisting on genuine forecasts.
Failure to further strengthen the compulsory super system would be disadvantageous to many future retirees and be an added burden on a later generation of taxpayers.
Liberal senator Andrew Bragg is one of the Coalition backbenchers who oppose the scheduled superannuation guarantee rise to 12%. They are looking to the retirement incomes inquiry to leverage change.
The ASX 200 slid 2.9% on Thursday amid less than completely encouraging news at home, and awful news from abroad.
The progress we were making has been slowed or reversed, at exactly the wrong time.
The long-term unemployed are a growing proportion of the unemployed. It’s hard to work out why.
We've 41,000 more long-term unemployed than would be expected given the unemployment rate. Something has changed.
As uncertain as 2019-20 is, The Conversation’s team of 20 leading economists are in broad agreement that the outlook isn’t good. Scott Morrison and Treasurer Josh Frydenberg will also have to deal with the unexpected.
Wes Mountain/The Conversation
The Conversation's distinguished panel predicts unusually weak growth, dismal spending, no improvement in either unemployment or wage growth, and an increased chance of recession.
Slicing up to 0.5 percentage points off wage increases for five years would cut wages by 1% of GDP.
In an election about wages, it is bizarre that both sides are planning to raid them to lift compulsory super.
It’d be nice if all you needed to do was to produce more. In finance, that hasn’t been enough.
Boosting productivity isn't enough, no matter how much you do it.
Things will continue to look good enough for long enough to help the government fight the election. Beyond that, the Conversation Economic Panel is worried.
Wes Mountain/The Conversation
The Conversation has assembled a forecasting team of 19 academic economists from 12 universities across six states. Together, they assign a 25% probability to a recession within two years.
Market forces are unlikely to lift wage growth higher without help.
Wage growth has been at near depression levels for half a decade. It needs a push.
Amazon has lifted its lowest pay rate to US$15 an hour.
Australia's unemployment rate may have to fall much more before we see any wages growth.
Households feeling the pinch from frozen wages feeds into slower economic growth, and policymakers need to find a solution.
Governments can't undo the technological changes behind frozen wages and rising inequality. The best policy is to invest in education and training to give workers skills of value in the new economy.
The RBA governor gave a speech on demographics and monetary policy.
The new RBA monetary statement is just like the old one.
Aggregate demand is being hit by the concentration of income growth among the top earners and is now a drag on economic growth.
News that Australian CEO pay has soared to a 17-year high at a time when ordinary workers' wages are flatlining is ultimately bad news for economic growth and prosperity.
Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe addressing a forum on wages and productivity.
Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has effectively ruled out an interest rate rise until wage growth tops 3%.
The arguments being made for corporate tax cuts lack solid empirical or theoretical backing.
Research on the impact of corporate tax cuts reaches different conclusions, depending on the time and place it looks at.
As ACTU secretary, Sally McManus has proven effective at elevating the debate over workplace reform.
Even with the most favourable laws, unions will still need to confront the reality of a dramatic transformation in the world of work.
Having a bullhorn is nice, but workers need more to elevate their voices.
AP Photo/David Goldman)
Although over 200 CEOs have promised to share windfalls from the recent tax cut with their employers – something the president is likely to bring up in the State of the Union – research suggests workers aren't holding their breath.