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# Artículos sobre Probability

## Cancer evolution is mathematical – how random processes and epigenetics can explain why tumor cells shape-shift, metastasize and resist treatments

An epigenetic model of cancer that incorporates the concept of stochasticity could also explain why cancer risk increases with age and how biological development can be reversible.

## Heads or tails: What statistical models tell us about the probability of living beyond 110

The oldest person in the world, Kane Tanaka of Japan, died in April 2022 at 119 years. The record of Jeanne Calment of France, who died at 122, has stood for almost 25 years. Will it be beaten?

## 433 people win a lottery jackpot – impossible? Probability and psychology suggest it’s more likely than you’d think

A lottery jackpot being won by 433 people in the Phillipines has raised accusations of foul play. Then again – such outcomes usually do.

## Nobel Prizes, election outcomes and sports championships – prediction markets try to foresee the future

Buying and selling stocks – with real or play money – is a way to harness the wisdom of the crowd about questions like who is going to win a competition.

## It’s impossible to determine your personal COVID-19 risks and frustrating to try – but you can still take action

People want a simple answer. Is this action safe? But despite Anthony Fauci bouncing responsibility for COVID-19 risk assessment to individuals, your risk can’t be boiled down to one probability.

## Pandemic decision-making is difficult and exhausting – here’s the psychology that explains why

People tend to dislike uncertainty and risk – two things that are hard to avoid completely during a pandemic. That’s part of why it can feel especially draining to make even small decisions these days.

## How accurate is your RAT? 3 scenarios show it’s about more than looking for lines

Rapid Antigen Tests are being rolled out by the millions for Australians to check their COVID status. But a result should be interpreted in context.

## Do the math when measuring social distancing: two metres is not the same as six feet

Why haven’t people gotten upset about how our social distancing signs are fostering innumeracy?

## What’s a 100-year flood? A hydrologist explains

Flood plain statistics can be confusing. There are better ways to think about the risk of severe weather than 100-year storm or flood.

## What the Euro 2020 Panini sticker album can teach us about probability

We used probability to find out what collecting all 678 stickers might cost you.

## Who is (probably) today’s best male tennis player?

With the Australian Open about to start this year’s grand slam series, a crunch of the data from past performances gives a hint at who is the current best male player, possibly.

## Curious Kids: could our entire reality be part of a simulation created by some other beings?

Philosopher Nick Bostrom’s theory suggests there’s a one-in-three probability we live in a simulation.

## Coronavirus is significant, but is it a true black swan event?

The danger of treating COVID-19 as an astronomically rare and improbable event is that we will treat it as such and fail to prepare for the next pandemic. And there will be another pandemic.

## Here’s how I cracked Roll up the Rim and won (almost) every time

Tim Hortons changed Roll up the Rim to include a digital element. A statistician correctly predicted that playing on the last day of the contest would dramatically increase the odds of winning.

## Polly knows probability: this parrot can predict the chances of something happening

Kea were able to correctly guess the most probable scenarios, by evaluating various physical and social cues. Previously, only great apes and humans were known to be able to understand probability.

## How hard is it to scramble Rubik’s Cube?

Scrambling it is much easier than solving it. But it still involves some fascinating questions, such as the number of random moves needed to consider the cube truly messed up.

## How sports fans respond to their teams’ wavering odds of winning

Watching the chances of victory change injects life into sports, both real and fantasy.

## From election upsets to climate chaos, rolling the dice helps us appreciate the odds

Wages, starlight and polls can all be interpreted using statistics. While probabilities, medians and noise can be challenging, a simple dice can provide insights into statistics.

## Why drug trials are only part of the answer to making sure medicines work

Clinical trials are used to establish that medicines work. But these don’t take into account the genetic differences between us that can mean very different outcomes for different patients.

## You can’t control what you can’t find: Detecting invasive species while they’re still scarce

It’s cheaper to prevent biological invasions than to react after they happen. But it’s hard to detect invaders while there are still just a few of them. Knowing when and where to look can help.