Ethiopia’s main religions need to take an emotional distance from politics and find a neutral space so they can get moral clarity.
Where will an end to the conflict come from?
Unless the blockade by Ethiopia is lifted, Tigray will be in a very bad famine situation.
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The rate and scale of the destruction of Tigray’s healthcare system is severe.
The biggest challenge to the health system is the war in Tigray and other insecurity all over the country. Conflict has made COVID-19 prevention and vaccination efforts impossible in many areas.
Due to warfare, ploughing and planting was not timely in Tigray. This may lead to a second year with failed crops.
When humanitarian agencies are obliged to stop operations by political decision or because of huge physical insecurity, the poorest and most vulnerable succumb first through starvation and disease.
Instead of fanning the flames, the West needs to be even-handed in bringing the warring sides to the table.
Every aid worker lost in the crossfire of a conflict is a tragedy; when they are deliberately targeted, it is an outrage.
In Ethiopia’s new and unsettled political space, there are issues related to the current electoral rules, the performance and strength of the opposition parties, and to campaigning.
Establishing whether a genocide is happening in Ethiopia requires an independent and objective investigation – which probably won’t happen.
It’s a confluence of local, regional, national and, possibly, foreign interests.
If a country refuses, or blocks, humanitarian aid this act violates international law.
Ethiopia’s party system is extremely volatile due to the prevalence of weakly institutionalised and fragmented political parties.
The new conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray region could be the tipping point for foreign investors in the garment industry.
The health and wellbeing effects will go beyond the direct impact of war-related fatalities, and are likely to last for years after peace is fully restored.
Providers of humanitarian aid haven’t been able to reach civilians in Ethiopia’s Tigray region. There are also reports that hundreds of civilians have been killed.
Conflict between Eritrea and Tigray has long represented a destabilising fault line for Ethiopia as well as for the wider region.
The standoff between Abiy Ahmed and the armed forces in Tigray has already caused thousands to flee their homes.