Some so-called superforecasters are claimed to have predicted the course of the pandemic better than scientific experts.
Members of the public were more overconfident and less accurate in predicting the likely number of infections and deaths, but both groups missed the mark.
Whether you are predicting the outcome of an election or studying how effective a new drug is, there will always be some uncertainty. A margin of error is how statisticians measure that uncertainty.
Can political prediction models pick the election winner better than the polls, the weather or Washington’s football team?
His life’s work was asserting the humanity and history of the Bantu people, while proposing that the soul was able to bring knowledge of the past and of the future into the present.
Some people are growing weary with romantic and dystopian visions of the future. Instead, our focus is on now.
Predicting life expectancy remains in the realm of science fiction, but it may soon be possible. Are we prepared for such information? And who else would benefit from this knowledge?
From wage growth to renewable energy to religion, projections are being treated as predictions. We’d be better off insisting on genuine forecasts.
Plenty of services use AI to study your behaviour to suggest new things to you. So could such a tool help you decide how to vote?
A new tool called EcoCast helps fishermen in the West Coast figure out where it’s best to fish that day.
We can’t simply try to work out what’s going to happen during the fourth industrial revolution.
Technology can only go so far in making sense of our vast and intricate atmosphere.
Australia has won the soccer World Cup three times, in simulation games only. So what are the challenges to predicting the winner?
AI seems able to answer questions at the heart of humanitarianism – questions such as who we should save, and how to be effective at scale.
How do scientists predict volcanic eruptions? To do so with accuracy, they need to know the individual volcano and its history very well.
Feel like something will be easy to remember? Your prediction may be influenced by how clearly the information was presented in the first place.
Many of HG Wells’s futuristic prophecies have come true, but the one on which his heart was most set – the establishment of a world state – remains unfulfilled.
It’s not a good idea to simply rely on methods that have provided accurate predictions in the past.
Turns out the English Premier League is a lot more unpredictable than Spain’s La Liga, which could be why it attracts so much funding.
As the talking heads line up to predict this season’s division winners, many are hoping fans will forget their abysmal forecasts for the 2015 season.