Astrology and astronomy were once practiced side by side by scientists like Galileo and Kepler. And they’re more similar than you might think.
Academic rigor, journalistic flair
Articles on Predictions
Displaying 1 - 20 of 40 articles
Understanding why people underpredict expenses could help them budget more accurately – and even encourage them to save more money.
Buying and selling stocks – with real or play money – is a way to harness the wisdom of the crowd about questions like who is going to win a competition.
Social influencers vie for public attention in a crowded market place. This makes the bold and the ruthless even more likely to opt for strategic dishonesty if it will further their interests.
Some so-called superforecasters are claimed to have predicted the course of the pandemic better than scientific experts.
Members of the public were more overconfident and less accurate in predicting the likely number of infections and deaths, but both groups missed the mark.
Whether you are predicting the outcome of an election or studying how effective a new drug is, there will always be some uncertainty. A margin of error is how statisticians measure that uncertainty.
Can political prediction models pick the election winner better than the polls, the weather or Washington’s football team?
His life’s work was asserting the humanity and history of the Bantu people, while proposing that the soul was able to bring knowledge of the past and of the future into the present.
Some people are growing weary with romantic and dystopian visions of the future. Instead, our focus is on now.
Predicting life expectancy remains in the realm of science fiction, but it may soon be possible. Are we prepared for such information? And who else would benefit from this knowledge?
From wage growth to renewable energy to religion, projections are being treated as predictions. We’d be better off insisting on genuine forecasts.
Plenty of services use AI to study your behaviour to suggest new things to you. So could such a tool help you decide how to vote?
A new tool called EcoCast helps fishermen in the West Coast figure out where it’s best to fish that day.
We can’t simply try to work out what’s going to happen during the fourth industrial revolution.
Technology can only go so far in making sense of our vast and intricate atmosphere.
Australia has won the soccer World Cup three times, in simulation games only. So what are the challenges to predicting the winner?
AI seems able to answer questions at the heart of humanitarianism – questions such as who we should save, and how to be effective at scale.
How do scientists predict volcanic eruptions? To do so with accuracy, they need to know the individual volcano and its history very well.
Feel like something will be easy to remember? Your prediction may be influenced by how clearly the information was presented in the first place.
Top contributors
-
James Walker is a Friend of The Conversation.Emeritus Professor of Communication, Saint Xavier University
-
Professor; Department of Journalism and Multimedia Arts [JMA], Duquesne University
-
Professor of Economics and Finance. Director of the Betting Research Unit and the Political Forecasting Unit at Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University
-
Research Associate, Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication, University of Cambridge
-
Professor of AI at UNSW, Research Group Leader, UNSW Sydney
-
Professor of Electrical and Electronic Engineering and Deputy Dean Research at Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, The University of Melbourne
-
Professor of Statistics, Queensland University of Technology
-
Professor of Marketing and Consumer Behaviour, Queensland University of Technology
-
Professor, School of Economics, The University of Queensland
-
Associate Professor in Telecommunications Engineering, Swinburne University of Technology
-
Adjunct Professor of Sport Studies, UC-RISE, University of Canberra
-
Former Academic Research Fellow, Khalifa University
-
Lecturer, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
-
Professor of Organisational Behaviour, Bayes Business School, City, University of London
-
Professor in Robotics, Queensland University of Technology
