The long-term unemployed are a growing proportion of the unemployed. It’s hard to work out why.
We've 41,000 more long-term unemployed than would be expected given the unemployment rate. Something has changed.
As uncertain as 2019-20 is, The Conversation’s team of 20 leading economists are in broad agreement that the outlook isn’t good. Scott Morrison and Treasurer Josh Frydenberg will also have to deal with the unexpected.
Wes Mountain/The Conversation
The Conversation's distinguished panel predicts unusually weak growth, dismal spending, no improvement in either unemployment or wage growth, and an increased chance of recession.
Slicing up to 0.5 percentage points off wage increases for five years would cut wages by 1% of GDP.
In an election about wages, it is bizarre that both sides are planning to raid them to lift compulsory super.
It’d be nice if all you needed to do was to produce more. In finance, that hasn’t been enough.
Boosting productivity isn't enough, no matter how much you do it.
Things will continue to look good enough for long enough to help the government fight the election. Beyond that, the Conversation Economic Panel is worried.
Wes Mountain/The Conversation
The Conversation has assembled a forecasting team of 19 academic economists from 12 universities across six states. Together, they assign a 25% probability to a recession within two years.
Market forces are unlikely to lift wage growth higher without help.
Wage growth has been at near depression levels for half a decade. It needs a push.
Amazon has lifted its lowest pay rate to US$15 an hour.
Australia's unemployment rate may have to fall much more before we see any wages growth.
Households feeling the pinch from frozen wages feeds into slower economic growth, and policymakers need to find a solution.
Governments can't undo the technological changes behind frozen wages and rising inequality. The best policy is to invest in education and training to give workers skills of value in the new economy.
The RBA governor gave a speech on demographics and monetary policy.
The new RBA monetary statement is just like the old one.
Aggregate demand is being hit by the concentration of income growth among the top earners and is now a drag on economic growth.
News that Australian CEO pay has soared to a 17-year high at a time when ordinary workers' wages are flatlining is ultimately bad news for economic growth and prosperity.
Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe addressing a forum on wages and productivity.
Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has effectively ruled out an interest rate rise until wage growth tops 3%.
The arguments being made for corporate tax cuts lack solid empirical or theoretical backing.
Research on the impact of corporate tax cuts reaches different conclusions, depending on the time and place it looks at.
As ACTU secretary, Sally McManus has proven effective at elevating the debate over workplace reform.
Even with the most favourable laws, unions will still need to confront the reality of a dramatic transformation in the world of work.
Having a bullhorn is nice, but workers need more to elevate their voices.
AP Photo/David Goldman)
Although over 200 CEOs have promised to share windfalls from the recent tax cut with their employers – something the president is likely to bring up in the State of the Union – research suggests workers aren't holding their breath.
Will tax cuts really allow Qantas to purchase more planes?
Research shows there is a link between tax cuts and increased business investment, but the effect is likely smaller than politicians and businesspeople say.
After years of low interest rates, economic growth is back.
After years of deflation and disinflation, the economy is "reflating". But it might not last.
Simon Birmingham said the Turnbull government has ‘already had great success in terms of reducing the rate of price growth’.
The education minister says that under Labor there were child care price spikes of up to 14% over a 12 month period, but under the Coalition those have fallen to "around 6% on average". Is that right?
Labor’s Chris Bowen says Australian workers are doing it tough.
AAP Image/Tracey Nearmy
Shadow treasurer Chris Bowen said Australian wages growth is at record lows. Is that true?
The U.S. could do with a shot in the arm too.
Bear syringe via www.shutterstock.com
Although the Fed delayed raising rates this month, it has signaled it intends to wean the U.S. economy off its unprecedented monetary stimulus. Now the question is whether Congress will take the handoff.
For low paid workers, such as those in hospitality, cutting personal income tax would be more helpful than changing the minimum wage.
Reducing the minimum wage - and eliminating income tax for those workers - is a far better strategy to tackle poverty.