Most polls are pointing to a Biden win, but it will be the “swing states” where the vote is close that will hold the key to who takes the White House.
Academic rigour, journalistic flair
Articles on Polls
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There was a time when well-known journalists resented preelection polls and didn’t mind saying so. One even said he felt “secret glee and relief when the polls go wrong.” Why did they feel this way?
Nearly three-quarters of fans say they won’t attend games until a vaccine has been developed.
One way in which Latino voters vary is where they or their forebears came from. In states like Florida, that difference matters.
Polls have become an essential component of the news coverage of presidential campaigns. That may affect who voters decide to back on an election day.
In a survey, Trump supporters showed the lowest faith in the Supreme Court, the federal government, the media and other pillars of society.
When candidates beat pollsters’ expectations, that can mean more positive media coverage.
In recent years, voters have shifted their views on issues based upon the positions of politicians – even when that shift clashes with their ideology.
The true number of people who do not favor either of the two major political parties in the US has actually remained stable in recent years.
Wages, starlight and polls can all be interpreted using statistics. While probabilities, medians and noise can be challenging, a simple dice can provide insights into statistics.
The very first scientific horse race poll, which took place 85 years ago, was shrouded in secrecy and may have changed history – even though it was faulty.
If you want to understand the American public, don’t look at national poll numbers.
Tactical voting and shifting party allegiances mean the final week could change everything.
A look at the challenges of producing and consuming election polls.
After a foreign policy win, presidents usually enjoy a short-term poll boost. But that’s often followed by a long-term decline.
Women are swinging elections in the US and Australia in ways analysts have struggled to predict. Two recent studies can help explain.
Members of Congress factor what the public thinks into their decisions. But it’s difficult to measure what the public is really thinking.
Meanwhile, the polls indicated that support for impeachment has shifted markedly, with most Americans now supporting it.
US President Donald Trump is in an unenviable position as the race towards the 2020 presidential election heats up. Meanwhile, the UK’s attempts to Brexit continue to be untidy.
Political campaigns and journalists often turn to social media to see how voters feel about an election. But the numbers they see there may not accurately reflect the electorate’s views.
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Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
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Professor of Economics and Finance. Director of the Betting Research Unit and the Political Forecasting Unit at Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University
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Professor of Politics, University of Strathclyde and Senior Research Fellow, National Centre for Social Research, National Centre for Social Research
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Research Professor at the Center for Political Studies, University of Michigan
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Professor, Department of Government, University of Essex
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Senior Lecturer, School of Political and Social Inquiry, Monash University
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Professor of Sociology, University of California, Irvine
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PhD Candidate, The University of Western Australia
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Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra
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Professor of Geography, University of Bristol
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Senior Lecturer in Quantitative Social Science and Director of the Sheffield Q-Step Centre (The University of Sheffield); Statistical Ambassador (Royal Statistical Society), University of Sheffield
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Adjunct Research Fellow; Journalist, University of Notre Dame Australia
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Associate Professor in American Politics and Foreign Policy, US Studies Centre, University of Sydney
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Professor of Political Science, LaGrange College
