Early writers on probability had explained how the ‘house advantage’ didn’t need to be large for a gambling enterprise to profit enormously. But gamblers and gambling operators were slow to catch on.
Beyond polls and betting markets, how else can we gauge how people feel ahead of future elections? Social media is a goldmine, and one of the newer ways to tap into it is with a “social mood reader”.
The stock market looks a good bet, despite reaching an all-time high late last month. But until the UK election is out of the way, you might want to steer clear.
An important milestone for political junkies is fast approaching: on Friday November 7 it will be six months to go until next year’s UK general election. At this stage it looks almost impossible to call…
Professor of Economics and Finance. Director of the Betting Research Unit and the Political Forecasting Unit at Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University