You could compare election opinion polls to penalty shoot-outs at a World Cup final: there’s huge pressure to get it right and we remember the big misses most of all.
Policymaking is no longer based solely on what a party stands for. Now, it also matters how a decision is going to play in the opinion polls – and that’s a problem for our political system.
We are often presented with surveys that claim to show how we all think on a certain subject. But how many people do you need to ask for that finding to have have any convincing meaning?
Australians will be asked to complete a voluntary, non-binding postal vote on marriage reform. Wouldn’t it be easier - and cheaper - to do a sample survey instead?
Concerns over filter bubbles and fake news are often based on anecdotal evidence. There is relatively little systematic research on the topic; a new survey finds widespread fears are unwarranted.
Neither Galaxy Research nor the Institute of Public Affairs think-tank discussed the most interesting data they garnered from polling on free speech and reform to Section 18C.
Most Americans care about the environment, but they didn’t vote that way this year. Two political scientists urge the movement to build better connections with blue-collar workers and immigrants.
Mark Textor, the Liberal pollster, has raged against the modern addiction to polls, in an article this week that shows he can indeed walk both sides of the street, as insider and observer.
Finally, Clive Palmer has formally put a full stop to his personal political career, announcing on Monday he won’t be running for the Senate. Palmer United Party (PUP) will still field Senate candidates…
Professor, Future Fellow and Head of Statistics at UNSW, and a Deputy Director of the Australian Centre of Excellence in Mathematical and Statistical Frontiers (ACEMS), UNSW Sydney