The Tasmanian seats of Bass and Braddon were always going to be key elements of a Coalition victory – and so it proved to be.
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Articles on Scott Morrison
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The Coalition should not use this unexpected win to allow itself to be complacent and drift. It needs to work out its agenda for the next three years and how it allows internal debate.
Now that the Coalition has won the federal election, how will it meet its campaign promises on taxes, the environment, education, health and infrastructure?
The outcome is completely opposite to the polls, which all had Labor ahead going into the election, albeit narrowly and with some tightening during the campaign.
This result, which is vastly different from what opinion polls were indicating, shows the probability of “herding” in polls, and also emphasises that betting odds are to be treated with great caution.
After five long weeks, the campaign is drawing to a close, with the polls still pointing to a narrow Labor win, with lots of unknowns in the detail.
Recent polling suggests the race is tightening. Then again, opinion polling suggested the recent Victorian state election would also be a close affair and it turned out to be a Labor landslide.
If someone asked the “real Scott Morrison to please stand up”, two men might rise to their feet. The uncompromising, don’t-give-an-inch hard Scott, and a more conciliatory, flexible character.
Wentworth remains one of the most interesting individual contests in this campaign.
It remains to be seen whether the Liberals’ campaign woes in Lyons will have any impact on the neighbouring battleground seats of Bass or Braddon, which recent polls suggest the Liberals could regain.
The Christian Democratic Party in NSW could play a key role in the election by funnelling support from voters in electorates with large East Asian populations to the Liberal Party.
No gaffes, no real surprises – the third leaders’ debate was a fairly predictable affair, save for the testy conclusion
As the campaign wears on, Scott Morrison and Bill Shorten have appeared increasingly stage-managed and rehearsed. Where is the charisma, wit and inspiring ideas?
While Ipsos on Newspoll are telling different stories about leaders’ approval ratings, both are still showing a likely victory for Labor at the federal election.
The reason we know more about a post-election Labor ministry is that most of its occupants are already “shadowing” the jobs they’d hold.
Inevitably much of the discussion and many of the clashes focused on money and tax – the conflicting arguments have been well rehearsed throughout the campaign.
In the second debate of the campaign, Scott Morrison and Bill Shorten answered questions from voters in a people’s forum on everything from franking credits to, yes, post offices.
Research shows that Australians are increasingly tuning out of leaders’ debates – just 21% reported watching a debate in 2016, down from 71% in 1993.
Pre-poll votes within the first 24 hours were almost double the number at the same stage in 2016. That could hurt some minor parties who traditionally spend big in the last few weeks of a campaign.
After the backlash against the formal Labor-Greens alliance under the Gillard government, Shorten is anxious to keep maximum distance between the ALP and the minor party.
Top contributors
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Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra
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Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
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Professor of History, ANU College of Arts and Social Sciences, Australian National University
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Tony Walker is a Friend of The Conversation.
Vice-Chancellor's Fellow, La Trobe University
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Professor, Australian Studies Institute, Australian National University
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Senior Research Fellow, Centre for Advancing Journalism, The University of Melbourne
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Associate Professor, Politics and Public Policy, Flinders University
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Professor, School of Politics Economics & Society, Faculty of Business Government & Law, University of Canberra
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Peter Whiteford is a Friend of The Conversation.
Professor, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University
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Adjunct Professor at the University of Canberra, University of Canberra
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Senior Lecturer of Australian Politics, Murdoch University
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Professor and Director of the Policy Innovation Hub, Griffith Business School, Griffith University
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Emeritus professor of politics, Monash University
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Senior Lecturer in Political Science: Research Fellow at the Cairns Institute; Research Associate for Centre for Policy Futures, University of Queensland, James Cook University
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Professor of Economics, UNSW Sydney
