Making sense of the polls
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After a very long election night, the Liberals currently lead the WA Senate count with 33.7% of the vote, down 5.5%. Labor has 21.8%, down 4.8%, the Greens have 15.9%, up 6.4%, Palmer United Party (PUP…
At the last federal election, there was a very close exclusion which affected the final result in the WA Senate. This was compounded by the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) losing 1400 votes. Acting…
In Tasmania, the Liberals won a decisive majority with 15 of the 25 Tasmanian seats. Despite winning a clear majority of the vote in SA, the Liberals failed to win government, with Labor clinging to power…
Last week’s Nielsen had the Coalition leading Labor 51-49, but this week’s polls have Labor ahead. Here is the usual poll table. Note that Essential is not well regarded after a poor performance at the…
In Tasmania the Liberals clearly won a majority last night with over 51% of the vote, ousting Labor after 16 years. However, in South Australia, a hung Parliament is likely with Labor winning 23 seats…
It is virtually certain that the Liberals will win a clear majority in today’s Tasmanian election. In South Australia, a hung Parliament now looks plausible, though a Liberal majority is still more likely…
Elections will be held in both South Australia and Tasmania on Saturday 15 March. It is likely that the Liberals will win government in both states. All Australian mainland states use the same general…
Last week a Nielsen poll gave the Coalition its first poll lead from a reputable pollster since November last year. This week’s Newspoll has given Labor its biggest lead since prior to the 2010 election…
After the rapid gains for Labor last November and December, the Coalition has recovered some ground, though Labor still leads in the polls. Here are the three polls published this week. For Newspoll, it…
Kevin Rudd’s retirement from Federal politics gives the Liberals an opportunity to take his seat of Griffith at a by-election this Saturday 8 February. However, although Rudd only won Griffith by a narrow…