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Making sense of the polls

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Late Victorian and Fisher By-Election Counting

The Greens have won Prahran from the Liberals by 277 votes after beating Labor by 31 votes at the point where Labor or the Greens were excluded. In SA, the Liberals staged a dramatic recovery on pre-poll…

Likely Shock Labor By-Election Win in SA

At the March 2014 South Australian election, Labor won 23 seats out of 47, to 22 Liberals and two Independents, despite losing the statewide Two Party Preferred (2PP) vote by a 53.0-47.0 margin. Shortly…

Abbott’s Ratings Fall to Five Month Low

This week’s Newspoll had Tony Abbott’s satisfied rating down 3% to 33%, and his dissatisfied rating up 2% to 57%, for a net approval of -24, down five points from last fortnight. On all three measures…

Latest State and Federal Polling

I mentioned Morgan and Galaxy polls in Saturday’s Victorian election preview. Morgan has published another SMS poll, this one taken from last Friday to Monday from a sample of 1170. The results show a…

Victorian Election Preview

The Victorian election will be held in just one week. While I have written about the Victorian election previously, I have yet to do a full preview post. This post includes some material from previous…

Poll Trend to Labor Continues

Two months ago, Newspoll only had Labor ahead by 51-49 from primary votes which suggested a 50-50 tie. That poll was taken after dramatic arrests in Sydney to stop an alleged terrorist incident. The last…

Ipsos and Newspoll Show Conflicting Results

This week we had two major media polls, with the first Ipsos poll in the Fairfax papers and Newspoll in The Australian. Ipsos has Labor’s lead at only 51-49, but Newspoll has Labor leading by a wider 54-46…

Democrats Smashed at US Midterm Elections

At US midterm elections held today (Aus time), the Democrats have lost control of the Senate, lost seats in the House, and failed to defeat any of their top right-wing Republican gubernatorial targets…

Victorian and Other State Polling

The Victorian State election will be held in four weeks on 29 November 2014. The table below gives the results of Victorian polls that have been published in the last week. The columns are the polling…