Articles on Shadow Reserve Bank

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Sharemarket volatility demonstrates global frothiness; nevertheless the case is weak for an interest rates cut. AAP/Dan Peled

Trouble looms, so rates should hold

The best course of action for the Reserve Bank is to hold off changing rates; but the longer term case for an increase is changing.
The Shadow RBA Board recommends what the RBA should do, not predicts what it will do. Image sourced from www.shutterstock.com

The RBA cut rates, we said it shouldn’t. Here’s why.

I am a member of the “Shadow” RBA Board, which is made up of a collection of industry and academic economists. Just before every meeting of the real-world RBA Board, we announce our recommendations for…
The drop in oil prices, and consequently fuel costs, is driving down inflation and helping the Australian economy. Andy Rain/EPA/AAP

Interest rates decision could boil down to oil: RBA Shadow Board

The CAMA RBA Shadow Board is a project by the Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, based at the ANU, which asks industry and academic economists what interest rate the Reserve Bank of Australia should…
It’s been a steady-as-she-goes year for Reserve Bank Governor Glenn Stevens. Alan Porritt/AAP

Rates tipped to stay on hold in final RBA decision for 2014

The CAMA RBA Shadow Board is a project by the Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, based at the ANU, which asks industry and academic economists what interest rate the Reserve Bank of Australia should…
Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens is closely watching rising house prices. Dean Lewins/AAP

RBA’s holding pattern is likely to stay, for now

The CAMA RBA Shadow Board is a project by the Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, based at the ANU, which asks industry and academic economists what interest rate the Reserve Bank of Australia should…
With the Australian dollar continuing to fall, the local economy is expected to rebalance. Paul Miller/AAP

Falling Aussie dollar to weigh on interest rates decision

The CAMA RBA Shadow Board is a project by the Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, based at the ANU, which asks industry and academic economists what interest rate the Reserve Bank of Australia should…
The picture of Australia’s economy right now is murky. PSJeremy/Flickr

Economic outlook in Australia remains murky

The CAMA RBA Shadow Board is a project by the Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, based at the ANU, which asks industry and academic economists what interest rate the Reserve Bank of Australia should…
Rates should stay steady for now, say CAMA economists. Dan Peled/AAP

Call likely to grow louder for interest rates to rise

The CAMA RBA Shadow Board is a project by the Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, based at the ANU, which asks industry and academic economists what interest rate the Reserve Bank of Australia should…
Consumer sentiment has fallen since the federal budget while other indicators suggest the economy is in limbo. AAP/Dan Himbrechts

Rates should hold until post-budget malaise clears

The CAMA RBA Shadow Board is a project by the Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, based at the ANU, which asks industry and academic economists what interest rate the Reserve Bank of Australia should…
Economic activity led by housing is strengthening - but a tough budget may dampen growth. AAP/Lukas Coch

Rates: housing-led upswing, but tight budget may drag growth

Latest economic news shows some promising signs for the Australian economy. However, the new government’s first budget next Tuesday is a big unknown. The unemployment rate fell to 5.8% in March while full…
Australia’s economy is showing promising signs, with global events the main source of concern. AAP

Promise on the horizon for Australian economy

The Australian economy appears to be benefiting from the current expansionary stance in monetary policy, despite uncertainties in the global economy. The CAMA Shadow Board is 71% confident that the cash…
Rising unemployment is likely to be a factor in future interest rate movements. AAP Image/Joe Castro

Spectre of rising unemployment to weigh on rates decision

The key question for interest rates this month is whether improving domestic demand will curb the increasing rate of unemployment and underemployment, or whether labour market weakness will persist. The…
Australia’s economic position remains uncertain, which may prompt the Reserve Bank to hold interest rates. AAP

Waiting game on economy means RBA should hold

Without a clear direction of where the Australian economy is heading, the consensus to keep the cash rate at its current level of 2.5% remains strong. Uncertainties surrounding the domestic and foreign…
Data suggests a tentative economic improvement. Image sourced from www.shutterstock.com

Has the Australian economy turned the corner?

The balance of risks to Australia’s economy has barely shifted from last month, so that the consensus to keep the cash rate at its current level of 2.5% remains strong, according to Reserve Bank Shadow…

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