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Articles sur Hillary Clinton

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Supporters on election night 2016 at a Hillary Clinton party, when it became clear poll-based forecasts had been off target. Toni L. Sandys/The Washington Post via Getty Images

Why Americans are so enamored with election polls

Polling is an imperfect attempt at providing insight and explanation. But the public's desire for insight and explanation about elections never ends, so polls endure despite their flaws and failures.
Will Trump voters – like these at a rally, waving goodbye to him as he leaves – defy the polls and send him back to the White House? Olivier Touron/AFP/Getty Images

How might the campaign’s endgame be disrupted? Here are five scenarios, drawn from the history of election polling

Polling shows Joe Biden with a large lead over Donald Trump nationally in the presidential race. But there are many ways that presidential race polling has gone wrong in the past, and could do so now.
Chinese outlets that once relayed cautious optimism over Donald Trump’s deal-making abilities now express exasperation over his chaotic style. Greg Baker/AFP via Getty Images

Russian media may be joining China and Iran in turning on Trump

In 2016, America's adversaries seemed to cheer electoral chaos and a withering faith in democracy. Now they seem to be hoping democracy can topple a leader they've grown loathe to deal with.
British Columbia’s Chief Health Officer Dr. Bonnie Henry provides an update on the coronavirus pandemic on Sept. 20. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chad Hipolito

Even in 2020, a double standard is still applied to women in the spotlight

Women in visible leadership positions are subject to personal attacks as less competent and reliable than their male colleagues. Acknowledging this double standard is the first step in addressing it.
Legendary New York City columnist Jimmy Breslin, right, ready to do shoe-leather journalistic research in a bar, said preelection polls were “monstrous frauds.” Michael Brennan/Getty Images

When noted journalists bashed political polls as nothing more than ‘a fragmentary snapshot’ of a moment in time

There was a time when well-known journalists resented preelection polls and didn’t mind saying so. One even said he felt “secret glee and relief when the polls go wrong.” Why did they feel this way?
Democratic vice-presidential candidate Sen. Kamala Harris speaks at the Democratic National Convention on Aug. 19 in Delaware. Why wasn’t she the presidential nominee? Strategic discrimination by primary voters may explain. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)

How race and gender affect who looks like a winner

Why are women and people of colour under-represented in politics? Part of the problem is strategic discrimination, or concern about other people's biases.
Delegates after Donald Trump accepted the GOP presidential nomination at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland, Ohio on Thursday, July 21, 2016. Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call/via Getty

Political conventions today are for partying and pageantry, not picking nominees

Political conventions used to pick presidential nominees in private. Now the public picks the nominee and then the party has a big party at the convention, writes a scholar of US elections.

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