Abdurashid Abdulle Abikar/AFP via GettyImages
It’s likely that the terrorist group will be defeated one day. But there are no signs that the political elite is capable of changing.
A Somali soldier looks out from a military base where a US special operations soldier was killed by a mortar attack south of Mogadishu in 2018.
Mohamed Abdiwahab/AFP via Getty Images
Al-Shabaab remains a strong regional actor and has proved itself to be a resilient force. It’s time to weigh a non-war strategic option
The Hayat Hotel in Mogadishu where a 30-hour Al-Shabaab siege left 21 people dead in August 2022.
Hassan Elmi/AFP via Getty Images
Al-Shabaab’s evolution over nearly two decades has been centred around three major goals.
US troops in Djibouti in 2003 on a mission to watch terrorist groups in countries that include Somalia.
Photo by Sean Gallup/Getty Images
The core obstacle to stability in Somalia is the lack of agreement among political, religious, and business elites on how to govern their country.
Somali police officers in Mogadishu, Somalia, in 2018.
Mohamed Abdiwahab/AFP via Getty Images
A transition is underway in Somalia. There are massive risks if it is not handled with great care.
The grand designs of the major political and military actors lack an important ingredient: the views and the hopes of ordinary Somalis.
Getty Images
The political and security order which numerous foreign actors have been investing in has produced marginal benefits for the population.
Muslim women and children in Lamu in north east Kenya. Al-Shabaab’s recruitment of female members is most evident in coastal and north eastern counties.
Photo by Eric Lafforgue/Art in All of Us/Corbis via Getty Images
Women’s motivations for joining terrorist networks belie Kenyan media accounts of naive girls manipulated through romantic notions of Jihadi brides or wives.
A military drone replica is displayed in front of the White House during a protest against drone strikes on January 12, 2019 in Washington, DC.
Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images
In spite of a massive military effort the war against al-Shabaab has been effectively stalemated since 2016.
Hundreds gather for prayer at the scene of a massive truck bomb attack in Mogadishu in October 2017, the deadliest to hit conflict-torn Somalia.
The death of Al-Shabaab’s leader triggered deadlier suicide bombings as the group desperately tried to demonstrate its resilience.
A soldier on the African Union Mission in Somalia standing guard on a street during a security operation in Mogadishu, Somalia.
EPA/Tobin Jones
AMISOM’s experiences suggest that urban peace operations must be given sufficient resources from the outset
Kenyan soldiers at a prayer service in 2016 to honour compatriots killed in an attack on their Somali base by Al-Shabaab militants.
EPA/Daniel Irungu
New evidence has made possible a more accurate estimate of how many African personnel have died since the Somalia mission deployed in March 2007.
British Prime Minister Theresa May during her South Africa.
EPA-EFE/Rodger Bosch
The British prime minister’s visit to Africa comes amid increased interest by China and France.
French soldiers patrol in Diabaly, Mali, in 2013, following the failure of the African Support Mission.
EPA/Nic Bothma
Conflict patterns in Africa have changed rapidly in recent years posing a challenge to peace and security.
A Somali man talks to Kenya Defence Forces (KDF) soldiers as they secure an area in the coastal town of Kismayu in southern Somalia.
Reuters/Siegfried Modola
Kenya cited national security when it crossed into Somali territory in pursuit of Al-Shabaab militants. But there were numerous other potential aims at play.
Somali soldiers and peacekeepers from the AU Mission during an operation in 2014.
Reuters/Feisal Omar
Official reasons for joining the Somalia mission were that the conflict posed a security risk. But in fact other factors played a bigger role.
An armed policeman searches for Al-Shabaab gunmen during the deadly Westgate shopping mall terrorist attack in Nairobi in 2013.
Reuters/Goran Tomasevic
Kenya faces a serious threat of terrorist attacks given its strategic geopolitical position, its tourism and corruption. The country needs to squarely face this and take appropriate measures.
AMISOM and Somalia army soldiers after their advance on three Al-Shabaab controlled towns in the Lower Shabelle region.
AU-UN IST Photo / Tobin Jones
It’s unclear exactly when Kenya’s next president will begin the process of withdrawing troops from Somalia. If it’s too rushed, the move might destabilise the region.
Somalia security escort Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni’s convoy to a regional summit in Mogadishu, the first in 35 years.
Reuters/Feisal Omar
Al Shabaab is facing stress under increased pressure from the government and the regional states. But it should also be noted that predictions of its collapse have come and gone before