Approval ratings are usually a good way to predict the winner of the next presidential election. But Trump’s numbers fall far outside any historical trends.
You could compare election opinion polls to penalty shoot-outs at a World Cup final: there’s huge pressure to get it right and we remember the big misses most of all.
Americans’ votes in 2020 will likely be a statement on what they think of Trump – rather than a measured choice between him and the Democratic candidate.
Military veterans have concerns about climate change at about the same level as nonveterans, a recent study suggests. What might this mean for acceptance of climate science?
Back in 2016, the Brexit vote and US presidential election seemed like a nationalist one-two punch that could knock out the European Union. Instead, EU support actually rose, new research shows.
Policymaking is no longer based solely on what a party stands for. Now, it also matters how a decision is going to play in the opinion polls – and that’s a problem for our political system.
Ian Anson, University of Maryland, Baltimore County
Russian meddling has shaken Americans’ faith in democracy. But public discontent after a scandal is hardly new. Trust in government began to erode under Nixon, and it’s mostly worsened since then.
On June 7, Ontario may have a new premier, and the latest public opinion polls suggest it could be Andrea Horwath. She would lead just the second NDP government in Ontario.
Professor of Economics and Finance. Director of the Betting Research Unit and the Political Forecasting Unit at Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University